How many wins do we need?

[GoCats247]

I'm looking at the schedule today and trying to get an idea of how many wins we should get/can get this year, and how many it would take to earn a NCAA shot.

How many wins do you guys think we need to have an invite? I'm thinking 19 should be the magic number.

Four non-conf games left, we should win 3 of them for sure, and I can see them beating Memphis. That puts the Cats at 10-3 or 11-2 going into Big East play. It may be difficult to just say 19 wins would get us in considering the RPI and quality of wins weighs heavy, but if UC wins 8-10 games in the Big East, they would have to have some quality wins along the way.

So do you agree with me, 19 wins, and we're in?

[TmacGoCats]

I would think 19 wins would be the magic number, however it all depends on how the rest of the Big East turns out. I think it really depends on how many teams the selection commitee decides to take for the tourny.

Lets say they take 8 teams from the Big East, the only way UC gets into the tourny is if were in the top 8 or better. I don't think the commitee would look over a team to pick someone else if that team finished behind them in conference play.

[UCBRCT05]

20 wins unless we have some signiture wins over top teams.

[Matt1982]

WE do however have the luxury of not having any "bad losses" yet. If we can win 3 of 4 remaining non conference games, go .500 in the BE and that puts us at 19-12... problem is, I don't think Arkansas Pine Bluff counts, are they D-1? I don't know if the SWAC is or not... sorry for my lack of knowledge. I remember in the Andy Kennedy saga, we had won 20 games but really had won only 19 because we played a non D-1 school so it actually hurt us giving us fewer wins... we got beat out by "Air Force" who's coach said he was sitting in his living room watching the selection show when he about choked on his popcorn when he saw his team had made the dance... ugh.

Anyways, to be safe, we NEED 20 wins, Syracuse went 19-12 and 9-9 in the BE last year and found themselves playing in the NIT. So 20 has to be the magic number. We really need to focus on just being in the top 8 in the BE with a winning conference record.

[nachoman91]

10-2 OOC
10-8 IC
20-10 Overall Record

That's not taking into account the BE tourney. UC could afford another loss or two if they go deep in the conference tournament.

[Bearcat Revival]

I think 18 would be bubble due to their strength of schedule which will be pretty good considering the Big East.

[GoCats247]

That's not taking into account the BE tourney. UC could afford another loss or two if they go deep in the conference tournament.

Good point, I didn't consider the BE tourney. A couple wins there would really help make a case along with 19-20 wins.

[BeastUC]

WE do however have the luxury of not having any "bad losses" yet. If we can win 3 of 4 remaining non conference games, go .500 in the BE and that puts us at 19-12... problem is, I don't think Arkansas Pine Bluff counts, are they D-1? I don't know if the SWAC is or not... sorry for my lack of knowledge. I remember in the Andy Kennedy saga, we had won 20 games but really had won only 19 because we played a non D-1 school so it actually hurt us giving us fewer wins... we got beat out by "Air Force" who's coach said he was sitting in his living room watching the selection show when he about choked on his popcorn when he saw his team had made the dance... ugh.

Anyways, to be safe, we NEED 20 wins, Syracuse went 19-12 and 9-9 in the BE last year and found themselves playing in the NIT. So 20 has to be the magic number. We really need to focus on just being in the top 8 in the BE with a winning conference record.

Ark-PB would count,i think if any win wouldn't really count it would be the one vs South Dakota.
I think 20 is the magic number.The BEAST has been looking overrated as of late,so i would say 9-9 in the conference at least would be needed.

[UCamry]

This team will have no OOC marquee wins unless we pull an upset against Memphis.

With that said, and realizing that we play two of the worst Big East teams twice (Providence, St. Johns,), I think we need to get to 21 wins in the regular season..... If we only win 8 or 9 Big East games and 4 of those wins are from the Providence or St. Johns matchups, that doesn't boost our chances...

[BeastUC]

This team will have no OOC marquee wins unless we pull an upset against Memphis.

With that said, and realizing that we play two of the worst Big East teams twice (Providence, St. Johns,), I think we need to get to 21 wins in the regular season..... If we only win 8 or 9 Big East games and 4 of those wins are from the Providence or St. Johns matchups, that doesn't boost our chances...

The win over UNLV at UNLV should be marquee if they win their conference as projected.
I would say 4 wins vs SJU and PC would boost our chances more than 2-2,3-1,1-3 or 0-4 would against them.

[Cats4Ever]

Looking at the schedule - January has a lot of winnable games - and February looks brutal. I hope the team stays together through it - I think the February games make or break the season.

[ralph1950]

I'm looking at the schedule today and trying to get an idea of how many wins we should get/can get this year, and how many it would take to earn a NCAA shot.

How many wins do you guys think we need to have an invite? I'm thinking 19 should be the magic number.

Four non-conf games left, we should win 3 of them for sure, and I can see them beating Memphis. That puts the Cats at 10-3 or 11-2 going into Big East play. It may be difficult to just say 19 wins would get us in considering the RPI and quality of wins weighs heavy, but if UC wins 8-10 games in the Big East, they would have to have some quality wins along the way.

So do you agree with me, 19 wins, and we're in?

There is no magic number of wins, get the RPI in the top 40 and you have an excellent chance at an at large.

[jeffto]

The good part of scheduling weak this year is giving the team confidence. The bad part is that it's not going to help much in going dancing. I think we at least need a winning record in the conference and 1-2 conf. tourney wins to make the NCAA.

[Cats4Ever]

Would anyone be upset if there are fewer conference wins this year than last year?

[TheLivingLegend]

20 wins would be ideal...

[Joe_Pong]

Are we actually considering the NCAA tournament as a possibility? I am hoping for the NIT.

[jeffto]

Are we actually considering the NCAA tournament as a possibility? I am hoping for the NIT.The thread is exploring how many wins we would need to make the big dance. It has nothing to do with reality. Kind of like last year when people were projecting our NCAA seed after we won a game or two.

NIT would be fine with me too.

[Not Guilty]

I think UC would need 20 wins to have a legitimate chance at the NCAA tournament.

RPIforecast.com* gives us less than a 10% chance of reaching that mark at this point, but that number could change significantly if we were able to pull of the upset of Memphis.


*They base their projections off of Sagarin's predictor....

[shaunsimpson]

20 wins isn't the standard anymore, but I find it hard to believe that a 20 win team in the big east with a .500 conference record would be left out. We need at least:

9-3 out of conference.
9-9 in conference
1-1 in conference tournament.

That would be 19. We may need to hit that 20 to get in so I will say that if we beat Miss St and Memphis then we need 9-9 and 1-1 in conference, but if we lose one then we will need 10-8 and 1-1 or 9-9 and 2-1.

[Billy Don]

The thread is exploring how many wins we would need to make the big dance. It has nothing to do with reality. Kind of like last year when people were projecting our NCAA seed after we won a game or two.

NIT would be fine with me too.

For reality I'm looking to be in the NIT and that's only if Mick doesn't let this team go belly up late in the season like he has the past two years. For the fairy tale UC has to go at least 9-9 in the Big East and that might be border line if 8 or 9 other teams just kill the bottom feeders and all have 10 plus wins. I can't see how UC can't easy have 9 wins in the Big East. Of course it's hard to get off that homer hope. Just hoping UC can come in 8th or 9th in a conference not alone in the country is a real pain.

[nolte50uc]

i don't think it's so much how many wins we have vs. where we finish in the BEast. I think the committee will be stubborn and only vote in eight in again (unfortunately) and i think that's where we need to be to get in.

i'm banking on nit this year - ncaa run next year.

[Billy Don]

i'm banking on nit this year - ncaa run next year.

I think that would be the majority opinion of the astute UC basketball fan.

[slimm]

I'll go with 20 wins plus 2 more in the BE tournament.....or 18 wins plus go the final of BE tournament. I totally agree with nolte50uc in that we will get ZERO love from the tournament committee. I will take an NIT invite and hopefully a deep run in it. If we accomplish something close to this, I will be on the 2009-10 put up or shut up bandwagon. this team, if healthy, will have way to much talent to not go to at least the sweet 16. and, almost forgot, with Riek, then we contend for the national title.
________
Roll A Joint (http://howtorollajoint.net/)

[Billy Don]

I will be on the 2009-10 put up or shut up bandwagon. this team, if healthy, will have way to much talent to not go to at least the sweet 16. and, almost forgot, with Riek, then we contend for the national title.

You didn't happen to run into Ralph today did you? The NCAA next year is possible but one thing concerns me is Wright. If he does stay healthy can a freshman point guard lead us through the Big East conference or will he need another year? Another little tidbit is Williams may not be back. Rumor has it that after 5 years of college, a degree and a family to support he will be gone to try and make some money. That would leave a hole to fill.

[slimm]

You didn't happen to run into Ralph today did you? The NCAA next year is possible but one thing concerns me is Wright. If he does stay healthy can a freshman point guard lead us through the Big East conference or will he need another year? Another little tidbit is Williams may not be back. Rumor has it that after 5 years of college, a degree and a family to support he will be gone to try and make some money. That would leave a hole to fill.

absolutely agree about wright. if you want to contend, you must have that floor leader. I think with the experience gained this year by our other so called guards at the point ,coupled with vaughn, he will do fine. as for ralph, never had the pleasure. but I do remember him saying something once about riek and a national title.
________
AshleyY live (http://camslivesexy.com/cam/AshleyY)

[Scheids21]

Magic number implies that were definitely in if we reach that number. I cant say for sure but 20 regular season and 2 tournament wins should put us in.

[GoCats247]

Are we actually considering the NCAA tournament as a possibility? I am hoping for the NIT.

Absolutely I am considering the NCAA tournament. That's where the University of Cincinnati basketball team belongs.

I'm sick of not making the tournament.

[GoCats247]

I'll go with 20 wins plus 2 more in the BE tournament.....or 18 wins plus go the final of BE tournament. I totally agree with nolte50uc in that we will get ZERO love from the tournament committee. I will take an NIT invite and hopefully a deep run in it. If we accomplish something close to this, I will be on the 2009-10 put up or shut up bandwagon. this team, if healthy, will have way to much talent to not go to at least the sweet 16. and, almost forgot, with Riek, then we contend for the national title.

I agree 100%, I would expect a respectable run in the NIT if that's where the Cats end up. The tournament is what we want though.

And your right, next year, all chips are on the table.

[milfordcats]

That would leave a hole to fill.

Yeah, his name is Sean Kilpatrick.

[LongTimer]

The thread is exploring how many wins we would need to make the big dance. It has nothing to do with reality. Kind of like last year when people were projecting our NCAA seed after we won a game or two.

NIT would be fine with me too.

Isn't it a sad state when we are fine with the NIT? Where have the days gone when we wanted no part of anything but the NCAA? Kind of puts everything in perspective doesn't it?

[LongTimer]

I agree 100%, I would expect a respectable run in the NIT if that's where the Cats end up. The tournament is what we want though.

And your right, next year, all chips are on the table.

That's the attitude that I like to hear. National Championship or nothing. No excuses if Mick doesn't make it happen by next year. Remember, we took a step back and now it is time for two steps forward. 2 steps forward from final 4=National Champions!!!

[misterfresh]

i don't think it's so much how many wins we have vs. where we finish in the BEast. I think the committee will be stubborn and only vote in eight in again (unfortunately) and i think that's where we need to be to get in.

i'm banking on nit this year - ncaa run next year.


Agreed. The top 8-9 Big East teams will get a bid....regardless of wins and losses. Add on to that a Big East tourney win ot two and is should be a lock.

If AK's team didnt get MacNamara'd, they would have been in the dance. They were an 8 or 9 seed that year.

[GoCats1994]

Top 8 in the BE will get in.

Bottom 8 in the BE will not.

If #9 has 20 or 21 wins, it will not matter.

[jeffto]

Top 8 in the BE will get in.

Bottom 8 in the BE will not.

If #9 has 20 or 21 wins, it will not matter.Every year the selection committee chairman says that they ignore conference affiliation, but I think you're right. The question would be if #9 has 22-23 wins and top 40 RPI.

[MikeInClifton]

Originally Posted by nolte50uc

i'm banking on nit this year - ncaa run next year.

I think that would be the majority opinion of the astute UC basketball fan.

I am as well. . . . . . .

[Bearcat Fan Since 1958]

20 W minimum, really need 22 or 23 for NCAA certainty.

NIT, 17 or 18 W is the certainty figure.

[jeffto]

20 W minimum, really need 22 or 23 for NCAA certainty.

NIT, 17 or 18 W is the certainty figure.To get to 20 we'll have to have three quality wins in conference. Ken Pomeroy projects 18-13 with one quality conference win (ND @ Cincy). The most likely candidates for two more conf wins would be Louisville, WVU, Syracuse and/or Marquette. If we beat two of those teams are we dancing? We would be a bubble at best, I think. Of course, the conference tourney brings another opportunity.

My guess=NIT.

[jeffto]

Interesting stat: Of 343 Div. I college basketball teams, UC ranks 325th in experience. And we're in the BEAST. Making any tourney would be quite an accomplishment!