IF we go 5-3 to finish the regular season, are we in?

[Mick's Da Man]

We'd be 20-11 going into the Big East Tournament.

[Pruke]

We'd be 20-11 going into the Big East Tournament.

I suppose that would depend on how we do in the BE tourney.

[Thegreatone]

5 wins, yes no doubt.

4-4 and 1 win in the Beast tournament we are in.

5 wins and I dont care how we get them

[Thegreatone]

Well 5 wins and we have made a great arguement, nothing is for sure

[Kindog202]

Yes, I believe 20-11 gets us in the tourney because of the games we'd have to win to get to 20-11.

[Forsure21]

We have better resume then most teams, we really do.

[bearcatmark]

If we finish 5-3 we will by a 7 to 10 seed...depending on how we do in the Big East tourney.

[Thegreatone]

4 wins should be the goal to end the season.

[Boiiinng]

Our RPI right now is 59. I think we were only around 79 last year at this time.

[Kindog202]

Our RPI right now is 59. I think we were only around 79 last year at this time.

I don't think it has been updated with this win has it. We were around 59 before the game, right?

[BearcatAlum1]

IF we finish 20-11, I'd say we have a good shot at getting in the Dance.

HOWEVER, if we can win AT LEAST one game in the BigEast tourney and get our win total to 21, that would be huge.

As Bearcat Fans, we need to start rooting for all the teams we played in the non-conference, especially UNLV and MissSt.

Alum1

[Thegreatone]

20 wins with an above .500 record in the Big East puts you in the conversation. 4 wins to end the season and a win in the Beast tournament.

[Cyclone792]

I want five more Big East regular season wins and then at least one Big East tournament win.

We need to win the three games against the lower tier Big East competition (St. John's & Seton Hall at home, South Florida on the road) and steal two wins amongst the Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, West Virginia and Syracuse group.

The road games at Pittsburgh and at Syracuse are going to be extremely difficult, which means the road game this Saturday against Georgetown is huge since I believe it's the key road win we can still grab (or at least the most likely key road win we can grab).

[Forsure21]

UNLV win still is good but wow I saw they lost at TCU and at a below .500 team in Colorado St.

[Corporateballa]

We'd be 20-11 going into the Big East Tournament.

Yes - if this team goes 5-3 to finish 10-8/20-11 they are IN. No question.

[ralph1950]

The answer is no. The only way the Bearcats will be in the NCAA Tourney this season is by winning the Big East tourney.

[Scheids21]

Corporateballa and Ralph I have to disagree with both of you but leaning more towards the first. I dont think you can say were in no question, but Ralph you are wrong saying we can only get in thru the BEAST tourney. Wheres Riek when we need him??? This was a championship team and now we cant even get an at large bid? Damn he must be good.

Also I already stated this on another thread but I must do it again, Joe Pong....where are you??? Id like you to come defend your statement about how dumb we all are for thinking we could win this game.

[bearcat428]

The answer is no. The only way the Bearcats will be in the NCAA Tourney this season is by winning the Big East tourney.

i think that's the dumbest statement i've seen on this forum. :eek:

[bearcat428]

I don't think it has been updated with this win has it. We were around 59 before the game, right?

yeah, that's right, rpi of 59 before the ND win.

[dp3113]

20-11 means 10-8 in the conference. 10 wins will likely put at #7 in the conference. No question UC is in, if this all plays out.

I agree with thegreatone, I think 4 wins should be the goal as well for the remainder.

[Bcatfan08]

The answer is no. The only way the Bearcats will be in the NCAA Tourney this season is by winning the Big East tourney.

This coming from the guy who guaranteed we'd have Mauk back this past season. I love it when you make predictions like these because you're almost always wrong. Makes me feel more confident about our chances to get into the tourney.

[Bp4thebest]

Well, we gotta beat St. John's, USF and SH. That puts us at 18 wins. WE need to beat one other team in the regular season. If that win comes against WVU we could get the 9 seed over them and get depaul in the first round of the BEast tourney which would be 20 wins.. that would finish us at 20-13 and most likely in the ncaa tourney. Even if we get a 4th win against someone else and get 10 seed we still get a St. John's match up.. There is SO much riding on that WVU game right now! We can do this. IF we don't slip up against our 3 lesser opponents I see us grabbing another win somewhere and getting into the ncaa tourney!

[juckerrules]

UNLV win still is good but wow I saw they lost at TCU and at a below .500 team in Colorado St.

Not to mention SD St and that they are now only tied for third place in their league

[Mick's Da Man]

http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=908196

The above link has rivals most recent projection of the field of 65. Notre Dame was listed in the last 4 in. That gives me hope.

[ralph1950]

If UC goes 5-3 the rest of the regular season, wins 4 games in the Big East tourney, and wins 6 games in the NCAA tourney, UC will be National Champions.

[Billy Don]

If UC goes 4-4 the rest of the way in the regular season I can't see any way they aren't in. The Big East has turned into the have and the have nots. The top teams are just killing the bottom teams. Looks like 9-9 could be in the top 8 in the Big East. When you have a team like DePaul that could very well go 0-18 in the conference that just puts too many wins up at the top. Another example is ND. Losing to all the top teams just shifts the balance all that much more. You'd have to think ND went from a top 25 team to not making the NCAA tournament in a month. One thing for sure UC has their fate in their own hands. If they win they are in. Don't have to depend on someone else to beat a team for them. Things aren't going to change unless a team that is 9th or worse in the conference right now makes a big run. That doesn't look possible with everybody having to play a top team away on their schedule. Right now 9-9 looks like a lock.

[Bearcat Jeff]

If UC goes 4-4 the rest of the way in the regular season I can't see any way they aren't in. The Big East has turned into the have and the have nots. The top teams are just killing the bottom teams. Looks like 9-9 could be in the top 8 in the Big East. When you have a team like DePaul that could very well go 0-18 in the conference that just puts too many wins up at the top. Another example is ND. Losing to all the top teams just shifts the balance all that much more. You'd have to think ND went from a top 25 team to not making the NCAA tournament in a month. One thing for sure UC has their fate in their own hands. If they win they are in. Don't have to depend on someone else to beat a team for them. Things aren't going to change unless a team that is 9th or worse in the conference right now makes a big run. That doesn't look possible with everybody having to play a top team away on their schedule. Right now 9-9 looks like a lock. Notre Dame will still be a dangerous game for any team in the BEast. Especially at home. It wouldn't surprise me to see them make a late run and upset some people. I don't know if 9-9 is a lock, but I can see us winning 4 games in the home stretch and getting there. If we can get one big win that would help. U.C. has no glaring losses. That need to keep it that way. They need a signature win to go along with the 9-9 conference record. If they get a signature win, either to close the season or in the BEast tourney, or they go 10-8 in league, they get in the Dance. If they go 9-9 with no signature wins I think they are a bubble team, but league prestige could help them get over the hump.

[GoCats1994]

At this point, UC is entering the "are they a bubble team?" discussion.

Generally speaking...20 wins does not guarantee anything other than being in the "bubble team" discussion.

Generally speaking...fininshing at/near .500 in one of the "major" conferences does not guarantee anything other than being in the "bubble team" discussion.

When you are a bubble team...it's not just about what you do. It is also about what other teams do.

Will a Xavier or Memphis stumble/lay an egg in their own conference tourney. (Not a prediction...merely an example). When the favorites do not win in the fewer-bid conferences...it takes away at large spots.

Regardless of BE league affiliation...the committee seems to look more favorably on teams that are "hot". A bubble team that loses in its conference tourney finals will be seen more favorable than a bubble team in a major conference that cannot get past the quarter finals in its own league's tourney.

While I also believe that the top 7 or 8 in the BE should be in. There are no guarantees. I think it is safe to say the top 6 are locks. Otherwise...the "bubble" scenarios start coming into play.

[long suffering UC fan]

The answer is no. The only way the Bearcats will be in the NCAA Tourney this season is by winning the Big East tourney.


I'm hoping your point is that you don't think they can win enough regular season games, from here on to secure a bid. Certainly no one could argue that if they were to win 8-10 more games against BEAST opponents, BEAST tournament, included, they wouldn't have a very good shot at an at-large bid, without winning the automatic bid.

IMO 5-3 wouldn't be enough, without 2 addtl conference tourney wins, unless at least a couple of those wins came against teams at the very top of the conference. Otherwise, I'd expect to settle for the NIT. If they could pull off 6-2, though, and add 1 conference tourney win, I'd be optimistic. I really think the BEAST is going to get 7-8 teams in the NCAAs, but not 9, even if the 9th team seems to deserve it.

[London 'Cat]

The only thing that is certain is there are no certainties. In my opinion, the 'Cats need 20 regular season wins to be considered. Then, they probably still need 1-2 wins in the BEast tourney. I think the selection committee needs to be firmly convinced that UC is a NCAA caliber team to get an at-large bid. Given that there is now a three year absence from the tournament, to get back in will take a resume that the committee cannot refuse. 10-8 in arguably the toughest conference in men's college basketball history may carry the necessary weight to convince them.

[Big B]

At this point, UC is entering the "are they a bubble team?" discussion.

Generally speaking...20 wins does not guarantee anything other than being in the "bubble team" discussion.

Generally speaking...fininshing at/near .500 in one of the "major" conferences does not guarantee anything other than being in the "bubble team" discussion.

When you are a bubble team...it's not just about what you do. It is also about what other teams do.

Will a Xavier or Memphis stumble/lay an egg in their own conference tourney. (Not a prediction...merely an example). When the favorites do not win in the fewer-bid conferences...it takes away at large spots.

Regardless of BE league affiliation...the committee seems to look more favorably on teams that are "hot". A bubble team that loses in its conference tourney finals will be seen more favorable than a bubble team in a major conference that cannot get past the quarter finals in its own league's tourney.

While I also believe that the top 7 or 8 in the BE should be in. There are no guarantees. I think it is safe to say the top 6 are locks. Otherwise...the "bubble" scenarios start coming into play.

As Greenie just finished giving Golic crap about ND losing it's sixth game in a row, they brought Seth Davis (ESPN Analyst) on and they spent 5 min. on Big East. The jest of last nights game was not that UC became a bubble team but that ND dropped down to a bubble team. He still thinks UC will not be in. But he did feel that the Big East would some how pull off 9 teams in the Tourny this year. So the question will probably be if ND and Georgetown rebound and win their last few games. Would they take those 2 teams over UC even though UC finishes ahead of them in the final BE standings? I would say yes only because the time they spent in top 25 this year. So I'm thinking no matter how well they finish in the standings, they may need to gets some AP votes to get in.

[ralph1950]

Last season, 2007-2008, Syracuse had a regular season record of 19-12, their Big East record was 9-9. Syracuse did not go to the NCAA Tourney they went to the NIT.

[bearcatmark]

Last season, 2007-2008, Syracuse had a regular season record of 19-12, their Big East record was 9-9. Syracuse did not go to the NCAA Tourney they went to the NIT.

Different season, totally different scenario's. The Big East is far stronger as a league this year. UC has good non-conference wins too.

If UC wins at Georgetown they are likely to finish ahead of Georgetown and ND and be 3-0 against those two bubble teams. UC can easily play their way in

[Thegreatone]

Last season, 2007-2008, Syracuse had a regular season record of 19-12, their Big East record was 9-9. Syracuse did not go to the NCAA Tourney they went to the NIT.

That actually is encouraging to me. I remember how last year everyone talked how they got robbed. We have better OOC wins and the Beast is stronger. If we got 19-12 and win 1 tournament game it will be hard to keep us out.

[stevedodds]

I think UC needs a win or two against the top-half of the league. Even going 10-8 with losses to Pitt/UL/Cuse (the most realistic "best-case" scenario) would make it difficult to put this team in on that alone. I consider all home games must win, and the roadies at G'town and USF must wins. Accomplish that, and I'll be convinced.

[GoCats247]

We need to finish top half of the Big East in my opinion.

20 wins should secure a bid though.

[STKohls]

Don't forget that UC's first (or second, if they finish #9) tournament game is likely to be against Notre Dame or Georgetown. It's a chance to show the selection committee (again) that UC deserves a bid before their opponent.

Unfortunately many people will say that both Notre Dame & Georgetown were overrated when they were in the Top 25, and now that they've each had long losing streaks the Big East doesn't look as dominant. I wouldn't be shocked if the Big East only got 7 bids. GoCats1994 is correct that it will depend on mid-major conference tournament upsets and other external factors.

[shaunsimpson]

The answer is no. The only way the Bearcats will be in the NCAA Tourney this season is by winning the Big East tourney.

Why Ralph, why? When you throw something like that out there you have to back it up with something.

Is your thought that we don't go 5-3, which would have been answering a different question than the thread posted.

Is your idea just to make enough people mad so they quote you a bunch of times on here?

I would love to hear the logic on why a team that wins 20 games and goes 10-8 in conference wouldn't be in with 1 Big East tournament win or even two?

Originally Posted by ralph1950
Last season, 2007-2008, Syracuse had a regular season record of 19-12, their Big East record was 9-9. Syracuse did not go to the NCAA Tourney they went to the NIT.

Syracuse had one fewer win. A .500 conference record and lost by 19 in the first round of the conference tournament. The conference wasn't as strong last year. This is apples and oranges and Syracuse may have been in with a win in the first round of the conference tournament. They sure didn't need to win the conference tournament to get in and they would have had a better shot if they were a 20 win team with a over 500 conference record.

[catsfan32]

^Agree, i dont get ralph sometimes. I think that 5-3 or even 4-4 gets us on the "we got screwed if we dont get in" arguement. We really dont have a bad loss, the closest things we have to bad losses are:
Marquette by 34 (however its against a top 5 team on the road in the BE),
Providence at home by 8 (currently sitting 7th in the BE).
FSU is turning out to be a quality loss (if there is such a thing) and playing
UCONN tough at home proves we can play with the best.
Also X by ten isnt too bad of a loss (#1 in A-10 and top ten team at the moment)
We have some very quality wins against
UNLV (17-5 wins over the Ville, Arizona, and Utah)
Miss State (15-7 currently 3rd in the SEC)
Georgetown (Currently 10th in BE with #1 sos)
Notre Dame (12th in BE once top 10 team)

Overall i see our resume pretty well, we win the three games we have to (SJU,@USF,SH) win one or two toss-ups(@GU, UL, WVU) and look good or steal a game we shouldnt (@PITT, @Syracuse) I see the bearcat nation DANCING ONCE AGAIN BABY!

[Bearcats_Rule]

Definitely going to need to be at 19 - 20 wins before conference tourney and then one win in tourney if we are at 20 wins or 2 wins if we are at 19... The good thing is it is a definite possibility that this could happen... Take care of business and continue to play like we did against GT and ND and we could do it... Would love to hear all the Mick bashers if we are able to go dancing!!!

[BearcatAlum1]

UC can easily play their way in

This is the most important element remaining this season: the ability to control our own destiny.

If you would have told me that as of 2/5/09 we would be 15-8 (5-5) with wins of ND and G'town and controlled our own destiny with 8 conference games remaining, I would take that in a heart beat.

IT all comes down to focus and execution. I think the game at GTOWN will go a long way to solidifying our NCAA resume and establishing ourselves in the top half of the League. I don't think 9-9 is good enough. We need to AT LEAST 10-8 to stake our claim.

Regardless, we can play our way in, and that is all you can ever ask.

BearcatAlum1

[levydl]

Don't forget that UC's first (or second, if they finish #9) tournament game is likely to be against Notre Dame or Georgetown. It's a chance to show the selection committee (again) that UC deserves a bid before their opponent.

Unfortunately many people will say that both Notre Dame & Georgetown were overrated when they were in the Top 25, and now that they've each had long losing streaks the Big East doesn't look as dominant. I wouldn't be shocked if the Big East only got 7 bids. GoCats1994 is correct that it will depend on mid-major conference tournament upsets and other external factors.

I think that the way the Big East Tournament works is:

Teams 9 thru 16 play in the first round. So 9 play 16, 10 plays 15, and so on.

Teams 5 thru 8 get a bye to the second round, so the winner of the 9-16 game plays the 8th seed, the winner of the 10-15 game plays the 7 seed, and so on.

Teams 1 thru 4 get a bye to the 3rd round, the quarterfinals (which is what they got last year when it was a 12 team tourney - for instance, we were the 10 seed and played 7th seeded Pitt in the first round last year, then Pitt played the 2nd seeded U of L, who got a bye to the quarterfinals), so the winner of the 9/16 vs. 8 second round game plays the 1 seed, the winner of the 10/15 vs. 7 second round game plays the 2 seed, and so on.

[levydl]

Why Ralph, why? When you throw something like that out there you have to back it up with something.

Is your thought that we don't go 5-3, which would have been answering a different question than the thread posted.

Is your idea just to make enough people mad so they quote you a bunch of times on here?

I would love to hear the logic on why a team that wins 20 games and goes 10-8 in conference wouldn't be in with 1 Big East tournament win or even two?



Syracuse had one fewer win. A .500 conference record and lost by 19 in the first round of the conference tournament. The conference wasn't as strong last year. This is apples and oranges and Syracuse may have been in with a win in the first round of the conference tournament. They sure didn't need to win the conference tournament to get in and they would have had a better shot if they were a 20 win team with a over 500 conference record.

Why you bother with his nonsense I'll never understand.

[shaunsimpson]

Why you bother with his nonsense I'll never understand.

I don't know.....you are right

[BeastUC]

I'm not 100% sure,but the win over South Dakota will not count in the NCAA selection will it?

[swilsonsp4]

I'm not 100% sure,but the win over South Dakota will not count in the NCAA selection will it?

No, that game will not count. USD is a transitional D1 team that is playing only a partial D1 schedule this year. UC's record, as far as the RPI and the committee are concerned, is 14-8. USD will be part of the newly forming Great West Conference, which includes only current independents.

[Scheids21]

No, that game will not count. USD is a transitional D1 team that is playing only a partial D1 schedule this year. UC's record, as far as the RPI and the committee are concerned, is 14-8. USD will be part of the newly forming Great West Conference, which includes only current independents.

I dont understand why we played them at all then

[bearcatmark]

I dont understand why we played them at all then

Our nonconference schedule could come back to bite us somewhat. I think we played plenty of good teams, but scheduled too many sub 150 teams. You want to play a lot of 75-150 teams for your gimme games...it really helps your RPI.

[BeastUC]

No, that game will not count. USD is a transitional D1 team that is playing only a partial D1 schedule this year. UC's record, as far as the RPI and the committee are concerned, is 14-8. USD will be part of the newly forming Great West Conference, which includes only current independents.

Ok.I recall them talking about that during NCAA selection sunday show once.

[iamspen]

We can go 5-3, but only if Larry Davis can contribute consistently. The team clearly plays best when both guards split the responsibilities of the PG. Larry and Deonta alone are terrible point guards, but give both that responsibility when the time is right, and the 'Cats turn the ball over only 5 times.

[Matt1982]

I bet if we go 8-0 the rest of the way we will get in, just a hunch.

[bearcat428]

Our nonconference schedule could come back to bite us somewhat.

as opposed to last year? mick scheduled the right way this year. our conference schedule is plenty strong. we're not playing in the a10 like X is, they have to have a strong non conf. schedule.

[bearcat428]

I dont understand why we played them at all then

experience. that's when this team was growing and learning to play together. if they played duke, they would have gotten their skull beat in and not learned anything and had a loss on the schedule. kind of like what happened last year. this was/is a young team.

[Scheids21]

experience. that's when this team was growing and learning to play together. if they played duke, they would have gotten their skull beat in and not learned anything and had a loss on the schedule. kind of like what happened last year. this was/is a young team.

Ok but Im not looking for them to play Duke. They can play the worst team in the NCAA for all I care, Id just like it to count.

[bearcatmark]

as opposed to last year? mick scheduled the right way this year. our conference schedule is plenty strong. we're not playing in the a10 like X is, they have to have a strong non conf. schedule.

I’m not trying to mock Mick’s scheduling so please do not make it like that. But there are ways you can tweak your schedule to really aid your computer numbers down the line. Not playing sub 150 RPI teams is a great way. Arizona State last year was a great example of a team that played plenty of high profile games, won a good amount of them, but killed themselves with low RPI teams. Notre Dame is doing the same this year. UC’s did a far better job than those teams of avoiding RPI killer games, but I still don’t feel like we played nearly enough games against RPI top 150 teams. 8 of UC’s 14 wins are against sub 150 RPI teams. That will not look good to the selection committee. It is the reason UC is not more prominently in the discussion despite having wins that compete with a lot of bubble teams (even are better). If they had just scheduled more teams that are 50-150 they would likely have the same record, but a much better resume. Again avoiding low RPI teams is important. You do not want the committee to think your record is inflated by beating bad things.

Talk about how good the Big East is all you want…I agree, but avoiding the low RPI teams can easily be the difference in an NCAA bid and not getting one. I feared it before the year and it still is an issue.

[BearcatAlum1]

but avoiding the low RPI teams can easily be the difference in an NCAA bid and not getting one. I feared it before the year and it still is an issue.

True. Schedule "good" cupcakes, lol. For example, Dayton is 21-2, but has a bad RPI and SOS of 170. OUCH.

Alum1

[Cats4Ever]

Agreed on the very low level teams. They are great for helping a team's confidence and those who only look at a W, but not so good in helping the committee selection. Progress is measured in W's though to some.

[levydl]

I’m not trying to mock Mick’s scheduling so please do not make it like that. But there are ways you can tweak your schedule to really aid your computer numbers down the line. Not playing sub 150 RPI teams is a great way. Arizona State last year was a great example of a team that played plenty of high profile games, won a good amount of them, but killed themselves with low RPI teams. Notre Dame is doing the same this year. UC’s did a far better job than those teams of avoiding RPI killer games, but I still don’t feel like we played nearly enough games against RPI top 150 teams. 8 of UC’s 14 wins are against sub 150 RPI teams. That will not look good to the selection committee. It is the reason UC is not more prominently in the discussion despite having wins that compete with a lot of bubble teams (even are better). If they had just scheduled more teams that are 50-150 they would likely have the same record, but a much better resume. Again avoiding low RPI teams is important. You do not want the committee to think your record is inflated by beating bad things.

Talk about how good the Big East is all you want…I agree, but avoiding the low RPI teams can easily be the difference in an NCAA bid and not getting one. I feared it before the year and it still is an issue.

First off, 2 of those 8 sub 150 RPI wins are Rutgers and Depaul, who we had to play.

Moreover, according to realtimerpi.com, we still have to play at #3 in the RPI (Pitt), #12 at home (UofL), #19 at home (WVU), at #23 (GTown), and at #25 (Cuse). We will have played 4 of the top 10, 6 of the top 12, 7 of the top 14, 8 of the top 20, and 10 of the top 25.

I agree that we shouldn't schedule too many awful teams nonconference, but there has to be a balance with how tough the conference is and where our team is at this point in time. Sub 150 wins aren't good, but they're probably better than losses to teams in the 75-100 range. We had to get some wins and some confidence and experience early this year. In the future, I think you're right - when we're good enough that home games against teams 75-125 are pretty much a lock, then you cut out the Arkansas Pine-Bluffs. But I can't fault Cronin this year for the schedule.

[Thegreatone]

First off, 2 of those 8 sub 150 RPI wins are Rutgers and Depaul, who we had to play.

Moreover, according to realtimerpi.com, we still have to play at #3 in the RPI (Pitt), #12 at home (UofL), #19 at home (WVU), at #23 (GTown), and at #25 (Cuse). We will have played 4 of the top 10, 6 of the top 12, 7 of the top 14, 8 of the top 20, and 10 of the top 25.

I agree that we shouldn't schedule too many awful teams nonconference, but there has to be a balance with how tough the conference is and where our team is at this point in time. Sub 150 wins aren't good, but they're probably better than losses to teams in the 75-100 range. We had to get some wins and some confidence and experience early this year. In the future, I think you're right - when we're good enough that home games against teams 75-125 are pretty much a lock, then you cut out the Arkansas Pine-Bluffs. But I can't fault Cronin this year for the schedule.

Right in the Big East you can not schedule hard for the OOC. A couple good teams but you need easy wins.

Very close to the SEC in football. DOnt leave your campus and rock nobody's.

[bearcatmark]

Right in the Big East you can not schedule hard for the OOC. A couple good teams but you need easy wins.

Very close to the SEC in football. DOnt leave your campus and rock nobody's.

It is not about scheduling hard, but scheduling smart. Big Big Difference. At least if you want to be an NCAA team. Syracuse has complained multiple times about being screwed...It had nothing to do with their big east play and everything to do with their out of conference scheduling.

It could cost us a bid this season. I hope it does not

[shaunsimpson]

I really hope that we don't miss out on a NCAA bid because we beat the 300th team in the country instead of the 120th team in the country or because one of our wins doesn't count.

It is funny that there were many in the past that felt like the win number was important and now many feel that the wins were not good enough.....I don't think any of us know the real answer.

Would logic tell you that we beat everyone outside of the RPI 65 so we would beat the 150th team the way we beat the 300th team? Maybe.

What worries me is the selection committee changes their criteria every year so we have no idea.

If we end up 5-3 and win a game in the BEast tournament I find it hard to believe that we are not in. If we go 4-4 and win 2 games I also find it hard to believe.

The key to me is that we beat WVU and win the first tournament game since those are the two teams we will be competing with to make it to the NCAA tournament.

[bearcatmark]

Sean- The major issue here is that wins are not important in and of themselves. The committee is not sitting there like “Well if they had beaten the 120th rated team and not the 300th than everything would be gravy.” The committee looks at breakdowns like record vs. top 50, top 100, top 150, bottom 150…etc. If the committee sees that right now we have 14 wins, but 8 were against the bottom 150 teams…those wins just are not valued that highly. So they look and say ok well what did they do in their other games. They were 6-8 against the top 150. It is just one of the many issues that I don’t like having to deal with and it is a simple one to avoid. You are going to play a few teams that may be down there, but in generally you can schedule your winnable games against teams like Wright State, Cleveland State, Miami (OH), Murray State, Eastern Kentucky (good one that we did when it comes to win games)…schedule top teams from bad conferences…etc.

There are plenty of criteria and we have the ability to overcome this one. It is just one that annoys me because of how avoidable it is. If we go 5-3 down the stretch. It will not matter, but if we go 4-4 it could loom large if we sit on the wrong side of the bubble.

[Cats4Ever]

Games to be wary of are @ USF and St Johns. Need to make sure those are W's.

[Not Guilty]

Games to be wary of are @ USF and St Johns. Need to make sure those are W's.

Seton Hall is a better team than St. Johns.

[shaunsimpson]

Sean- The major issue here is that wins are not important in and of themselves. The committee is not sitting there like “Well if they had beaten the 120th rated team and not the 300th than everything would be gravy.” The committee looks at breakdowns like record vs. top 50, top 100, top 150, bottom 150…etc. If the committee sees that right now we have 14 wins, but 8 were against the bottom 150 teams…those wins just are not valued that highly. So they look and say ok well what did they do in their other games. They were 6-8 against the top 150. It is just one of the many issues that I don’t like having to deal with and it is a simple one to avoid. You are going to play a few teams that may be down there, but in generally you can schedule your winnable games against teams like Wright State, Cleveland State, Miami (OH), Murray State, Eastern Kentucky (good one that we did when it comes to win games)…schedule top teams from bad conferences…etc.

There are plenty of criteria and we have the ability to overcome this one. It is just one that annoys me because of how avoidable it is. If we go 5-3 down the stretch. It will not matter, but if we go 4-4 it could loom large if we sit on the wrong side of the bubble.

Mark - I am with you big time on the annoyance of this, because it is avoidable.....assuming that it isn't as hard to get games in basketball like it is in football (if you have questions on how hard it is to get a game in football that is a different topic that I could speak on for a while).

Just when I think I know what the committee looks at they change something up.

Do you think it is fair to assume that they go down the list and use each one as a tiebreaker? For example, if our top 50 is so much better than another teams do you think they will even look at the 150?


Games to be wary of are @ USF and St Johns. Need to make sure those are W's.


I assume you include Seton Hall in there as well. I really think that the WVU game is almost a must win for us to make the tournament (unless we beat Pitt or Louisville). It may come down to us or them for a spot.

[bearcatmark]

Games to be wary of are @ USF and St Johns. Need to make sure those are W's.

We need to be wary of every game. If this team does not come with their best efforts in this conference they will lose. Recently we have been very good about that so i have a ton of confidence in how we are going to finish this year. I know there are a ton of people on this board trying to tempor the optimism and lower expectations but I am excited for what lies ahead and very cautiously optimistic about our ability to play our way into the Big Dance.

[ralph1950]

I anticipate that UC will be favored to win only 2 games the remainder of the regular season, time to take UC plus the points.

[bearcatmark]

They use the same criteria, but yea they often apply it differently. That is why being strong across the board in these areas is so important. I've been pretty good at projecting what the committee would do as far as who gets in the last 4 years (just do it for fun, really anyone could do it. It is not very hard if you just look at the criteria they lay out)... the only year that really through me was the year UC got left out, Because Air Force and Utah State were so contrary to every criteria they talk about. Those two picks were utterly incomprehensible. The other years I think I’ve missed one each year and even the one I missed the team that got in was always right there and it was a close call. There is a lot of subjectivity in what they do, but I think what they are looking for is pretty clear and well advertised and is fairly consistently represented in who they choose.

As a side note I don't think basketball is as hard for scheduling because these are money games for small schools. (But really what do i know about that)

[LongTimer]

I really hope that we don't miss out on a NCAA bid because we beat the 300th team in the country instead of the 120th team in the country or because one of our wins doesn't count.

It is funny that there were many in the past that felt like the win number was important and now many feel that the wins were not good enough.....I don't think any of us know the real answer.

Would logic tell you that we beat everyone outside of the RPI 65 so we would beat the 150th team the way we beat the 300th team? Maybe.

What worries me is the selection committee changes their criteria every year so we have no idea.

If we end up 5-3 and win a game in the BEast tournament I find it hard to believe that we are not in. If we go 4-4 and win 2 games I also find it hard to believe.

The key to me is that we beat WVU and win the first tournament game since those are the two teams we will be competing with to make it to the NCAA tournament.

In one of those past seasons (2002/2003 I believe), we finished the regular season 17-9, then lost in the 1st round of the Conf. USA tournament to finish at 17-10, and considering that this was "LOWLY" Conference USA as everyone describes it, we still got a #8 seed in the NCAA tournament. So, I don't understand why everyone believes we have to get to 20 wins to get a bid. I think the important thing is to finish top 8 in the league. I also think that since so much has been made of the Big East being the strongest ever, that we will see a 9th team selected this year and an outside shot at 10, but I think 9 is a definite. If we can win our two easy home games against St. J and Seton Hall, and get one more along the way to finish with 18 wins, and then win a 1st round game in the tourney, we'll have a pretty good chance of making it. We may even make it without a 1st round win. Certainly, if we could get a bid with a 17-10 record in Conf. USA and 1st round tourney loss, then 17 or 18 in the BE this year should be able to get us in too.

[ralph1950]

In one of those past seasons (2002/2003 I believe), we finished the regular season 17-9, then lost in the 1st round of the Conf. USA tournament to finish at 17-10, and considering that this was "LOWLY" Conference USA as everyone describes it, we still got a #8 seed in the NCAA tournament. So, I don't understand why everyone believes we have to get to 20 wins to get a bid. I think the important thing is to finish top 8 in the league. I also think that since so much has been made of the Big East being the strongest ever, that we will see a 9th team selected this year and an outside shot at 10, but I think 9 is a definite. If we can win our two easy home games against St. J and Seton Hall, and get one more along the way to finish with 18 wins, and then win a 1st round game in the tourney, we'll have a pretty good chance of making it. We may even make it without a 1st round win. Certainly, if we could get a bid with a 17-10 record in Conf. USA and 1st round tourney loss, then 17 or 18 in the BE this year should be able to get us in too.

You need to get your RPI # below 40 to have a good chance to get picked at large. Last year Syracuse was 19-12 regular season and 9-9 conference, they did not receive an at large berth. AK's 2006 UC team went 8-8 Big East, were ranked in the top 25 during the season, and did not receive an at large berth.

[shaunsimpson]

Thanks for that guys. You hate to put the cart before the horse (talking about this before you get the wins), but it is hard not go get excited. Man, would I love the one signature win and due to my (what appears to be fruitless) goal of turning Louisville into our main rival (instead of Miami (OH) and Xavier) I am hoping that the win can come against them.


AK's 2006 UC team went 8-8 Big East, were ranked in the top 25 during the season, and did not receive an at large berth.

I feel Kirkland not being with the team hurt that year.....agree?

[Not Guilty]

I feel Kirkland not being with the team hurt that year.....agree?

The Kirkland injury crushed them because all of their success prior to the injury was seen with a grain of salt and UC was not nearly as good after the injury.

[bearcatmark]

I hate to revisit AK’s team because it absolutely gives me nightmares. I was 100 percent positive they were making the tournament. Their overall resume looked slightly better than Kentucky when I compared (who got a 7 seed). I thought they would be penalized for Armein but not that much.

What killed me about that was it seemed like the committee looked at UC’s record without Armein and immediately dismissed them from the tournament conversation (Littlepage basically said UC was out of the conversation very early). UC went 6-9 after Kirkland went down but a few things about that. The adjustment period with Kirkland took a while. I think it took about 6 games for UC to really start adjusting to live without him. Those first 6 games without Kirkland UC was 1-5. The rest of the way they were 5-4. The other thing about their losses was THEY WERE ALL TO NCAA TEAMS. It was not like UC was losing to bad teams, they were losing to tournament teams. Add to that the Bearcats managed to a 6 seed in WVU and a 5 seed in Syracuse on the road and two of their losses were in the closing seconds (a late layup by 1 seed Nova and a miracle shot for Syracuse on a neutral floor). Had the committee really looked at UC there was no way to say they were not NCAA caliber. The season absolutely killed me. If UC had been given the treatment every other bubble team gets they would have made it in.

[Bearcat Cafe]

Getting run off the court at Georgetown in front of the head of the selection committee and then choking at Seton Hall is what cost that team the bid in 2006. Not scheduling.

[catsfan32]

Agree, that AK team i believed was def in the tourney, i was pissed when they got shafted!

[BeastUC]

Getting run off the court at Georgetown in front of the head of the selection committee and then choking at Seton Hall is what cost that team the bid in 2006. Not scheduling.

I agree with the Seton Hall part.They ended up getting a bid over us as that win put them at 9-7 as to us being 8-8.
Plus the conference tourney loss to a 7-9 Syracuse team and other teams getting victories in their conference pushed UC off the bubble.

[bearcatmark]

I agree with the Seton Hall part.They ended up getting a bid over us as that win put them at 9-7 as to us being 8-8.
Plus the conference tourney loss to a 7-9 Syracuse team and other teams getting victories in their conference pushed UC off the bubble.

AIr Force and Utah State.... that simple. The two worst at large selections in the history of the NCAA tourney. Neither had an RPI top 50 win to their credit. It was an absolute joke. You are right about that stuff hurting UC...but UC still had a tournament resume

[Bearcat Cafe]

In retrospect, really wouldn't have mattered thanks to White and Jihad going off the reservation.

[McMickenKid]

I believe the Cats need to beat one of Syracuse, Louisville, or Pitt to have a chance. They dont have that marquee win yet. If the Cats beat Cuse, WVU, and the 3 bottom feeders, they're looking really good. Going 4-4 and beating the 3 bottom feeders and WVU wont be enough.

[Billy Don]

Mark




I assume you include Seton Hall in there as well. I really think that the WVU game is almost a must win for us to make the tournament (unless we beat Pitt or Louisville). It may come down to us or them for a spot.

Now you are talking! WV and UC have been in the same area for awhile now. Both are similar in a lot of ways. WV's problem is they are 6-7 under the boards and teams with size kill them. UC's problem is poor shooting against teams that can guard and play defense. WV can guard and play defense and UC is big under the boards so which factor will win out in the end? Good question. UC has the home court advantage and a couple players on WV choke in big games so I think UC has at least a slight advantage come Feb. 26. You are almost certaintly right that the WV game could be the NCAA make or break game for UC and WV. Funny how it comes down to that huh.

[qsilvr2531]

In retrospect, really wouldn't have mattered thanks to White and Jihad going off the reservation.

I think we never would have found out about White and Jihad's grade issues, as there is a pretty good chance we'd have been eliminated from the NCAA's before the quarter ended so no eligibility issues would have come up.

[Bearcat Cafe]

Now you are talking! WV and UC have been in the same area for awhile now. Both are similar in a lot of ways. WV's problem is they are 6-7 under the boards and teams with size kill them. UC's problem is poor shooting against teams that can guard and play defense. WV can guard and play defense and UC is big under the boards so which factor will win out in the end? Good question. UC has the home court advantage and a couple players on WV choke in big games so I think UC has at least a slight advantage come Feb. 26. You are almost certaintly right that the WV game could be the NCAA make or break game for UC and WV. Funny how it comes down to that huh.

Look at WVU's schedule down the stretch. Even without the UC game, WVU will win 10 BE games. That game probably won't decide WVU's fate. With their OOC wins, I think they get in regardless unless they tank some of the games down the stretch that they have no business losing.

[ME80]

Warning: for entertainment purpose only. At the end of the next 8 regular season games what will the forum sound like?

8-0 Cronin support level 99%, question most asked "What seed will UC have?"
7-1 Cronin support level 95%, question most asked, "When will Mick's extension be signed"
6-2 Cronin support level 90%, question most asked, "Are we in the big dance without a Big East Tournament win?"
5-3 Cronin support level 80%, Bubble talk abounds, question most asked, "Will 1 Big East Tournament win get us to the dance?"
4-4 Cronin support level 70%, question most asked, "Do we have a chance at the dance with 2 conference tournament wins?"
3-5 Cronin support level 60%. Even though the finish was predicted by all experts, forum experts are disappointed. Question most asked, "Will you buy a ticket for a NIT home game?"
2-6 Cronin support level 50% at best. Overall record is improvement over last year but not enough for many. Question most asked, "Should we even accept an invite to the CBIT?"
1-7 Cronin support level 30%, question most asked, "Will anyone challenge Pike for the starting QB job?"
0-8 Cronin support level, ??????. Since I won't be reading the forum for a while I do not know what the most asked question will be!

:D

[bearcatmark]

Warning: for entertainment purpose only. At the end of the next 8 regular season games what will the forum sound like?

8-0 Cronin support level 99%, question most asked "What seed will UC have?"
7-1 Cronin support level 95%, question most asked, "When will Mick's extension be signed"
6-2 Cronin support level 90%, question most asked, "Are we in the big dance without a Big East Tournament win?"
5-3 Cronin support level 80%, Bubble talk abounds, question most asked, "Will 1 Big East Tournament win get us to the dance?"
4-4 Cronin support level 70%, question most asked, "Do we have a chance at the dance with 2 conference tournament wins?"
3-5 Cronin support level 60%. Even though the finish was predicted by all experts, forum experts are disappointed. Question most asked, "Will you buy a ticket for a NIT home game?"
2-6 Cronin support level 50% at best. Overall record is improvement over last year but not enough for many. Question most asked, "Should we even accept an invite to the CBIT?"
1-7 Cronin support level 30%, question most asked, "Will anyone challenge Pike for the starting QB job?"
0-8 Cronin support level, ??????. Since I won't be reading the forum for a while I do not know what the most asked question will be!

:D

I am in for the entertainment. But I’m going to go seed wise 8-0, no worse than a 4 seed in the NCAA’s. 7-1 no worse than a 6 seed depending on the conference tourney. 6-2. We are dancing at a 6 or 7 seed…maybe an 8.

5-3… we are in…probably a 10 seed, 11 at worse (and of course could do better depending on conference tourney success)

4-4… Big time on the bubble. I think we would need to make the conference tourney semis to be sure…the quarters to be in the discussion (if we are the 9 seed in the Big East a first round win would do us exactly nothing…we’d have to at the very least win the next game)

3-5 or worse… we need a miraculous run to make the dance

[Bcatfan08]

You need to get your RPI # below 40 to have a good chance to get picked at large. Last year Syracuse was 19-12 regular season and 9-9 conference, they did not receive an at large berth. AK's 2006 UC team went 8-8 Big East, were ranked in the top 25 during the season, and did not receive an at large berth.

That year we didn't have any wins over top teams and if you counted the Big East tourney we went 8-9 in the Big East. We also got knocked out of the first round of the Big East tourney. We actually have some good wins this season and aren't riding on our SOS. Also, the Big East wasn't as good then as it is now. The Big East is far and away the best conference this year and it isn't close with four teams in the top eight. We get 20 wins this season and we have a great shot at the tourney. We get to 21 and we're in.

[Kindog202]

Warning: for entertainment purpose only. At the end of the next 8 regular season games what will the forum sound like?

8-0 Cronin support level 99%, question most asked "What seed will UC have?"
7-1 Cronin support level 95%, question most asked, "When will Mick's extension be signed"
6-2 Cronin support level 90%, question most asked, "Are we in the big dance without a Big East Tournament win?"
5-3 Cronin support level 80%, Bubble talk abounds, question most asked, "Will 1 Big East Tournament win get us to the dance?"
4-4 Cronin support level 70%, question most asked, "Do we have a chance at the dance with 2 conference tournament wins?"
3-5 Cronin support level 60%. Even though the finish was predicted by all experts, forum experts are disappointed. Question most asked, "Will you buy a ticket for a NIT home game?"
2-6 Cronin support level 50% at best. Overall record is improvement over last year but not enough for many. Question most asked, "Should we even accept an invite to the CBIT?"
1-7 Cronin support level 30%, question most asked, "Will anyone challenge Pike for the starting QB job?"
0-8 Cronin support level, ??????. Since I won't be reading the forum for a while I do not know what the most asked question will be!

:D

Very nice and I think pretty right on as well.

[bearcatmark]

That year we didn't have any wins over top teams and if you counted the Big East tourney we went 8-9 in the Big East. We also got knocked out of the first round of the Big East tourney. We actually have some good wins this season and aren't riding on our SOS. Also, the Big East wasn't as good then as it is now. The Big East is far and away the best conference this year and it isn't close with four teams in the top eight. We get 20 wins this season and we have a great shot at the tourney. We get to 21 and we're in.

That is blatantly false. UC beat a 4, 5, 6 and 7 seed that season (2 of those were on the road, 1 was on a neutral site)

[shaunsimpson]

Originally Posted by ralph1950
You need to get your RPI # below 40 to have a good chance to get picked at large. Last year Syracuse was 19-12 regular season and 9-9 conference, they did not receive an at large berth. AK's 2006 UC team went 8-8 Big East, were ranked in the top 25 during the season, and did not receive an at large berth.

Yes, but with a first round conference tournament loss that put them at 9-10 in conference games and the last one was by 19 in the most public of all of the games (1st round in conference tournament). Add in the 3-7 finish and they were in trouble.

2006 had everything to do with AK getting hurt in my opinion. I don't know when he went down, but we finished 6-10 when I think he went out. I still think we got screwed and if we would have beat Syracuse we would have been in that year.

[LongTimer]

21 wins gets us in? I think 18-19 wins will get us in. There are going to be 9 teams taken from the BE this year. This is certain with all the good press the league is getting. Today's win almost guarantees us to be in the top 9. We have a 2 game lead on Georgetown and a 2 1/2 game lead on Notre Dame and we own the tie breaker on both teams. If they happen a to come back and equal our record, we still get the nod. However, I am worried about the fact that Georgetown has spent time in the top 10 and more time in the top 25 all year. Their name recognition and exposure to the rankings worries me when it gets down to those final bids. We have spent no time in the rankings and are staying under the radar. We just need to take care of business and not let them or Notre Dame get back into a tie with us. It's going to be tough to hold off WVU because they have a lot easier schedule down the stretch. That game on the 26th with WVU will be huuuuuuuuuuuuge!! Huggs ve. Mick. 8 vs. 9 on the line. 1st round bye vs. no bye on the line. Finishing in the top 8 of the BE vs. finishing in the bottom half. That game has the makings of being one of the greatest games in the history of the SHOE!!!!!

[Joe_Pong]

Bottom line is we will not get in without beating a team that is in the top 10 in our conference. We have yet to do that. We will have the opportunity though. If we win the games we are supposed to, steal a game or two against a highly ranked team, and don't flame out in the 1st game of the conference tourney, we have a shot.

We at least have to beat someone like west virginia or syracuse though. If we lose those two games, I don't think we have much of an argument.

[LongTimer]

Bottom line is we will not get in without beating a team that is in the top 10 in our conference. We have yet to do that. We will have the opportunity though. If we win the games we are supposed to, steal a game or two against a highly ranked team, and don't flame out in the 1st game of the conference tourney, we have a shot.

We at least have to beat someone like west virginia or syracuse though. If we lose those two games, I don't think we have much of an argument.

G-Town was in the top 7-8 when we beat them the 1st time and they were #10 today!

[ME80]

Warning: for entertainment purpose only. At the end of the next 8 regular season games what will the forum sound like?


0-8 Cronin support level, ??????. Since I won't be reading the forum for a while I do not know what the most asked question will be!

:D

I guess I can take this one of the list