Looking ahead - rest of regular season

[jkwuc89]

at Pittsburgh - Frankly, I would be shocked if UC won this one. I am hoping UC keeps it close

Louisville - Best change for a win over a ranked opponent. A win over the Cardinals at home would be HUGE! UC would need to play their best game of the season to pull this one off.

West Virginia - I think UC will take this one at home

at Syracuse - The Orange are struggling a bit. I think they have some injury concerns but I don't know this for certain. I think this game is winnable.

at South Florida - UC must and I mean MUST win this game. UC cannot afford any slip ups to teams in the lower division of the Big East

Seton Hall - I think UC will send the seniors out on a winning note.

My "heart" prediction: UC goes 5 - 1 down the stretch, losing only to Pittsburgh. UC finishes 22 - 9.

My "head" prediction: UC goes 4 - 2, losing to Pittsburgh and to either Louisville or Syracust. UC finishes 21 - 10.

[Forsure21]

These last 6 games are so critical. It is just so crazy because I could see us going 2-4 as much as I could see a 4-2 finish.

IMO. 4-2 makes a lock no matter the BE-T. If we go 3-3 and win a game in the BE Tournament we WILL SECURE a bid. If we go 2-4 and we are on the serious bubble and need two wins in the BE-T.

[Kindog202]

These last 6 games are so critical. It is just so crazy because I could see us going 2-4 as much as I could see a 4-2 finish.

IMO. 4-2 makes a lock no matter the BE-T. If we go 3-3 and win a game in the BE Tournament we WILL SECURE a bid. If we go 2-4 and we are on the serious bubble and need two wins in the BE-T.

I agree completely with everything said. Good post.
**
I just can't help but think about the swoon at the end of last year. I know this is a different team with better talent, but last year is too fresh in my mind.
**
I hope your right, Keith.

[shaunsimpson]

NEED to go at worst 1-2 on the road and 2-1 would increase our chance for the tournament significantly because that would give us a +.500 road record.

[Cyclone792]

At minimum, we have to win one of the next four games; I'd be very happy going 2-2 over the next four games. Any win that UC grabs over the next four games would be a marquee win to add to the tournament resume.

Also, it goes without saying that UC must beat South Florida and Seton Hall no matter what.

[Cyclone792]

I'm looking ahead to the conference tournaments a bit. We need a whole lot of the following below to come to fruition:

Xavier or Dayton must win the Atlantic 10 conference tournament. Dayton's win tonight over Xavier puts the Flyers in the driver's seat for an at-large bid; we just need to avoid a bottom feeder A-10 team winning the tourney and sending three A-10 teams to the NCAA.
Memphis must win the CUSA conference tournament. If Memphis is bounced out, which isn't likely, UAB is the next preference to win their conference tourney.
Gonzaga must win the West Coast conference Tournament. If Gonzaga is bounced out, the at-large field may lose a bid (St. Mary's is the 2nd best WCC team, and they're a bubble team).
Butler needs to win the Horizon League conference tournament. If Butler is knocked out, the at-large field will lose a bid, I'm sure. I don't see any other team other than Butler receiving an at-large from the Horizon League.
Utah State must win the WAC conference tournament. If they're upset, the at-large field will lose a bid to the WAC.
Siena needs to win the Metro Atlantic Athletic conference tournament. They currently have a 28 RPI so there is some possibility they could swipe an at-large bid if they're unable to win their conference tourney.
The Missouri Valley Conference may only get one bid regardless of who wins their conference tournament, but right now I'm rooting for Creighton (RPI 58, best in the conference right now).
Davidson must win the Southern conference tournament, otherwise another at-large bid possibly disappears.

The more things above that come true, the more at-large bids are available for a team like UC to grab.

[Mick's Da Man]

I'm just going to take them one game at a time and not get too overconfident. I hope the players do the same thing.

The shooting is coming around at the best possible time. I hope we win the games we should and steal atleast one game we shouldn't win (or more). If we can do that, the season will be a complete success and we should definitely be dancing.

[ralph1950]

One thing is very certain, the Bearcats will have a winning record for the 2008-2009 season.

[Corporateballa]

I'm really enjoying this season. Imagine what their record would be if they were still in Coosa!

[TmacGoCats]

I'm looking ahead to the conference tournaments a bit. We need a whole lot of the following below to come to fruition:

Xavier or Dayton must win the Atlantic 10 conference tournament. Dayton's win tonight over Xavier puts the Flyers in the driver's seat for an at-large bid; we just need to avoid a bottom feeder A-10 team winning the tourney and sending three A-10 teams to the NCAA.
Memphis must win the CUSA conference tournament. If Memphis is bounced out, which isn't likely, UAB is the next preference to win their conference tourney.
Gonzaga must win the West Coast conference Tournament. If Gonzaga is bounced out, the at-large field may lose a bid (St. Mary's is the 2nd best WCC team, and they're a bubble team).
Butler needs to win the Horizon League conference tournament. If Butler is knocked out, the at-large field will lose a bid, I'm sure. I don't see any other team other than Butler receiving an at-large from the Horizon League.
Utah State must win the WAC conference tournament. If they're upset, the at-large field will lose a bid to the WAC.
Siena needs to win the Metro Atlantic Athletic conference tournament. They currently have a 28 RPI so there is some possibility they could swipe an at-large bid if they're unable to win their conference tourney.
The Missouri Valley Conference may only get one bid regardless of who wins their conference tournament, but right now I'm rooting for Creighton (RPI 58, best in the conference right now).
Davidson must win the Southern conference tournament, otherwise another at-large bid possibly disappears.

The more things above that come true, the more at-large bids are available for a team like UC to grab.

Thanks for the post Cyclone........very informational! I will be rooting for these teams

[BearcatAlum1]

I'm looking ahead to the conference tournaments a bit. We need a whole lot of the following below to come to fruition:

Xavier or Dayton must win the Atlantic 10 conference tournament. Dayton's win tonight over Xavier puts the Flyers in the driver's seat for an at-large bid; we just need to avoid a bottom feeder A-10 team winning the tourney and sending three A-10 teams to the NCAA.
Memphis must win the CUSA conference tournament. If Memphis is bounced out, which isn't likely, UAB is the next preference to win their conference tourney.
Gonzaga must win the West Coast conference Tournament. If Gonzaga is bounced out, the at-large field may lose a bid (St. Mary's is the 2nd best WCC team, and they're a bubble team).
Butler needs to win the Horizon League conference tournament. If Butler is knocked out, the at-large field will lose a bid, I'm sure. I don't see any other team other than Butler receiving an at-large from the Horizon League.
Utah State must win the WAC conference tournament. If they're upset, the at-large field will lose a bid to the WAC.
Siena needs to win the Metro Atlantic Athletic conference tournament. They currently have a 28 RPI so there is some possibility they could swipe an at-large bid if they're unable to win their conference tourney.
The Missouri Valley Conference may only get one bid regardless of who wins their conference tournament, but right now I'm rooting for Creighton (RPI 58, best in the conference right now).
Davidson must win the Southern conference tournament, otherwise another at-large bid possibly disappears.

The more things above that come true, the more at-large bids are available for a team like UC to grab.

Excellent information. If we get 21-22 wins, we're in the tournament, IMO. However, if all the scenarios above play out, it is in our favor.

These last 6 games are so critical. It is just so crazy because I could see us going 2-4 as much as I could see a 4-2 finish.

IMO. 4-2 makes a lock no matter the BE-T. If we go 3-3 and win a game in the BE Tournament we WILL SECURE a bid. If we go 2-4 and we are on the serious bubble and need two wins in the BE-T.

Absolutely. FORCE the Committee to put us in the Tournament. Leave nothing to chance.

BearcatAlum1

[Natiwhat]

Probably a bit sappy, but after the team's stretch of not competing in games like Memphis, early vs. X., etc., I'm just thrilled to see us developing like this. It appears we're heating up at a crucial part of the season. Granted, some of our wins have been against lower-echelon or struggling teams, but those are how you build confidence, and the team has showed they have guts if nothing else. I fully expect us to go at LEAST 2-4 the rest of the way, and anything on top of that is gravy for me this year. An NCAA tourney bid would be incredible. How 'bout Yancy with 21! Future's bright.

[ginsid007]

Has there every been a Big East Team with 20 wins not make the NCAA?

[Joe_Pong]

I'd be shocked if we finsished better than 2-4 down the stretch. I don't see us beating Pitt, Louisville, West Virginia, or Syracuse. We have shown nothing to suggest we can beat any of the top ten teams in this conference. I don't klnow what you guys are watching, but we haven't done it yet. We are kind of stuck in the middle - we are good enough to beat the cellear dwellers of the conference, but not good enough yet to beat anyone in the top half. But, if we do manage it, we have a shot at the tournament.

[Joe_Pong]

Probably a bit sappy, but after the team's stretch of not competing in games like Memphis, early vs. X., etc., I'm just thrilled to see us developing like this. It appears we're heating up at a crucial part of the season. Granted, some of our wins have been against lower-echelon or struggling teams, but those are how you build confidence, and the team has showed they have guts if nothing else. I fully expect us to go at LEAST 2-4 the rest of the way, and anything on top of that is gravy for me this year. An NCAA tourney bid would be incredible. How 'bout Yancy with 21! Future's bright.

Some of our wins have come against lower echelon teams????

How about all of them!

[Joe_Pong]

Has there every been a Big East Team with 20 wins not make the NCAA?

Has there ever been a Big East team that hasn't won a single game against the top 10 teams in the conference and still made the NCAA?

[MDW79]

Seriously??? After a win that puts us at 7-5 in, hands down, the best conference I have to read a certain poster's bs that I'll somply refer to as "Debbie Downer." I'm finally going to use ignore option. Wtf? I wish some posters could be banned for being a f'n troll. (I didn't quote anyone, nor direct it torwards anyone in particular, just pissed I wasted my team reading a few posts)

[CincyBeerCo]

Seriously??? After a win that puts us at 7-5 in, hands down, the best conference I have to read a certain poster's bs that I'll somply refer to as "Debbie Downer." I'm finally going to use ignore option. Wtf? I wish some posters could be banned for being a f'n troll. (I didn't quote anyone, nor direct it torwards anyone in particular, just pissed I wasted my team reading a few posts)

At least it was 3 straight, separate posts... :rolleyes:

[London 'Cat]

With eight games remaining, I said UC needed five wins. They have since won two, leaving three wins in the next six games. Two of those wins must be against Seton Hall and South Florida, as those would be considered "bad" losses. Thus, a win against one of Pitt, WVU, UL and Syracuse, IMO, likely puts UC in. I think UC's best chance to win in those four games is against WVU at home or at Syracuse. Winning both would be really nice. If UC wins four of its next six, I feel really an NCAA bid is a lock.

[shaunsimpson]

Has there every been a Big East Team with 20 wins not make the NCAA?

Yes, there has been. I mentioned it in the game thread, but will mention it again. So Syracuse has been left out twice with 20 wins.

Also, notice the trend that 20 wins seems less and less important to the selection committee, but is still a good measuring stick.

Big 6 conferences:
20 wins and missed the tournament
Previous to 2007 - 3 (Alabama - 2001, Syracuse - 2002, Colorado - 2006). 2007 - 4 (Syracuse, Kansas St - 22, West Virginia - 21, Florida St - 20).
2008 - Mississippi, Florida, Minnesota

[Bearcat Cafe]

Be curious to see which of those team you listed had a better than .500 conference record.

[Bearcat Jeff]

Some of our wins have come against lower echelon teams????

How about all of them!
This is part of the progression of building a consistent program. The ability to beat teams you should beat. This along with roads wins are stepping stones. The next step is to beat some teams above them and win consistently on the road. They are definately headed in the right direction.

[Cats4Ever]

remaining games

wins are 2 home games, losses are the remainder.

heart say 3-3, head says 2-4.

tough finish ahead.

[ME80]

I'd be shocked if we finsished better than 2-4 down the stretch. I don't see us beating Pitt, Louisville, West Virginia, or Syracuse. We have shown nothing to suggest we can beat any of the top ten teams in this conference. I don't klnow what you guys are watching, but we haven't done it yet. We are kind of stuck in the middle - we are good enough to beat the cellear dwellers of the conference, but not good enough yet to beat anyone in the top half. But, if we do manage it, we have a shot at the tournament.

I think you guys are being a little tough on Joe. He is just sharing his thoughts and if I take a step back and try to get some emotion out of it, I agree with his post. While UC has improved I still do not consider them top 20 material. With that said there is no reason that they should beat Pitt or Louisville. Syracuse on the road in front of who knows how many people in that arena is definitely a tough task. I see West Virginia as a toss up. That leaves two games, South Florida on the road (could be a trap game) and Seton Hall (one of the hottest teams) at home.

Don't get me wrong, this team has exceeded my expectations, and I would be on cloud nine if they could go 4-2, but realistically I do not think that will happen.

[Thegreatone]

Thats all fair ME80 but I got to ask why cant we beat WVU at home? On paper I see nothing that makes it seems like we cant play with them. What are you guys seeing in WVU and Syracuse that we are not? Neither team is very impressive.

Too be honest I dont see why Louisville is so good, they have lost to some average teams already this year. Although it will be tought why couldnt we beat them?

[Mick's Da Man]

Don't get me wrong, this team has exceeded my expectations, and I would be on cloud nine if they could go 4-2, but realistically I do not think that will happen.

I mostly agree.

But I'm starting to think that UC is going to be a trap game for many of our remaining opponents. Many of the teams at the top are due for an off night, and UC is starting to play it's best ball of the season, including the fact that the shooting is getting much better.

[ME80]

Thats all fair ME80 but I got to ask why cant we beat WVU at home? On paper I see nothing that makes it seems like we cant play with them. What are you guys seeing in WVU and Syracuse that we are not? Neither team is very impressive.

Too be honest I dont see why Louisville is so good, they have lost to some average teams already this year. Although it will be tought why couldnt we beat them?

That is why I believe that the game against WV is a toss up. Let's all admit that even if they went 2-4, that is 19-12 on the year in the Big East. Even the biggest "haters" would admit that the program is in the right direction. To judge their whole season now on whether they go 4-2 or 5-1 the rest of the way is unfair. Let's all admit that the next 4 games can arguably be the toughest 4 game stretch they have had all season.

[London 'Cat]

Realistically, a 3-3 record in the remaining six games would be an achievement. They have three home games (UL, WVU and SHU) and three road games (Pitt, Syracuse, USF). They need to beat SHU and USF and "steal" one more. The most likely candidates are WVU, because it's at 5/3, and Syracuse because the Cats have had success against them since joining the Big East.

[jkwuc89]

How a team finishes down the stretch is one of the key factors the tournament selection committed considers when deciding on at-large bids. Currently, UC has 7 of their last 9. If they go 4 - 2, that would translate to a 11 - 4 record to finish the regular season. I think that bodes well for the Bearcats.

[GoCats1994]

For the rest of the season...

What I like
- Overall team effort
- Offensive rebounding
- Players have more-or-less settled into their roles
- Seems like every night, a different player is "stepping up" to play a key role
- Development of the young guys
- Vaughn being a more vocal leader
- Mick setting the bar high

What I don't like
- Not sure we have a "lock-down" defender in the group
- (Closely related...) Do they have the capability to stall/close down/reduce the impact of a stud opponent...particularly if that player is a guard?
- (Opposite of the "every night a different player steps up" comment) - Every night, it seems like there is at least one player that disappears
- Lack of battle testing in a tourney setting (nothing they can do about this one yet...but given my choice, I wish they had more experience)

The future is still bright. Not to mention, this February is a lot more fun than last February as a fan.

[Cats4Ever]

Thats all fair ME80 but I got to ask why cant we beat WVU at home? On paper I see nothing that makes it seems like we cant play with them. What are you guys seeing in WVU and Syracuse that we are not? Neither team is very impressive.

Too be honest I dont see why Louisville is so good, they have lost to some average teams already this year. Although it will be tought why couldnt we beat them?

WVU is #8 in Pomeroy, #16 Sagarin, and #16 in RPI. All have WVU as a favorite to win @ UC.

Legitimate concern for that game. Great win for UC to get over WVU.

[shaunsimpson]

Be curious to see which of those team you listed had a better than .500 conference record.

20 wins and missed the tournament
2001
Alabama 8-8
2002
Syracuse 9-7
Colorado 9-7
2007
Syracuse 10-6
Kansas St 10-6
West Virginia 9-7
Florida St 7-9
2008
Mississippi 7-9
Florida 8-8
Minnesota 8-10

[Scheids21]

Just curious, why the sudden arrival of super moderators?

[Thegreatone]

WVU is #8 in Pomeroy, #16 Sagarin, and #16 in RPI. All have WVU as a favorite to win @ UC.

Legitimate concern for that game. Great win for UC to get over WVU.

Ok Ken Pomeroy is not a legitimate source, most of our Big East wins he predicted wrong.

I dont need a computer to tell me who is good.

[shaunsimpson]

Just curious, why the sudden arrival of super moderators?

The other moderators were too credible so they needed me to balance it out.

Actually, the traffic on the site is to the point where they needed a couple of us (I think 2) to help out on approving threads and making sure everyone is playing nice.

[Not Guilty]

Ok Ken Pomeroy is not a legitimate source, most of our Big East wins he predicted wrong.

Thats just not true. It predicted we would lose to Marquette, UCONN, at Providence, and at Villanova, which were all correct.

He also predicted we would beat Rutgers, Depaul, @St Johns, vs St Johns and Notre Dame.

The games he got wrong were home vs Providence, and the two Georgetown games.

9-3 isn't bad.

[Cats4Ever]

Ok Ken Pomeroy is not a legitimate source, most of our Big East wins he predicted wrong.

I dont need a computer to tell me who is good.

So are the other two sources credible to you?

If yes - there's your info that WVU is a good team.

U of L is inconsistent - but if they are on, they are final 4 material.

Syracuse looks to be struggling as a team - not really flowing well now.

Pitt is a beast - and tough to beat on their court.

It's fun watching all of them play. They each have different styles.

[Lobot]

Just curious, why the sudden arrival of super moderators?


"Traffic cops" were needed with site members and traffic way up recently like Shaun said. The threads were breaking down into member arguments way too often and a lot of personal insults, swearing and the like were being thrown around.

Anyway, in a nutshell, we're here to enforce the rules of the board as dictated by the Admins. The object is to make this an excellent discussion board again with the supporting facts and quality opinions we used to have when the board was much smaller. Things have gotten substantially better IMO but that may be because we haven't lost in a while.:) Personally I try and have a light hand and interject when it's needed. Keith is still highly involved and still handles the discipline part.

If you have further questions please PM me. Constructive criticism is always welcome and we are here for you as well in addition to assisting Keith. I personally volunteered for this so let me have it if you feel the need.

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming..

[Scheids21]

"Traffic cops" were needed with site members and traffic way up recently like Shaun said. The threads were breaking down into member arguments way too often and a lot of personal insults, swearing and the like were being thrown around.

Anyway, in a nutshell, we're here to enforce the rules of the board as dictated by the Admins. The object is to make this an excellent discussion board again with the supporting facts and quality opinions we used to have when the board was much smaller. Things have gotten substantially better IMO but that may be because we haven't lost in a while.:) Personally I try and have a light hand and interject when it's needed. Keith is still highly involved and still handles the discipline part.

If you have further questions please PM me. Constructive criticism is always welcome and we are here for you as well in addition to assisting Keith. I personally volunteered for this so let me have it if you feel the need.

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming..

Haha ok thank you. I was very curious.

[GoCats1994]

The link is on the main page. But as Lunardi points out...

But they're 0-6 against teams that are included in his latest bracket, having lost to Connecticut, Florida State, Memphis, Villanova, Marquette and Xavier by an average margin of 16.6 points.

The stretch run will be key for UC. I love the fact that they are in the tourney discussion in mid-February. Sure beats the last two years. However, I happen to agree that if the bracket were announced TODAY...they would not be invited. UC still has work to take care of.

[Cyclone792]

The link is on the main page. But as Lunardi points out...

But they're 0-6 against teams that are included in his latest bracket, having lost to Connecticut, Florida State, Memphis, Villanova, Marquette and Xavier by an average margin of 16.6 points.

The stretch run will be key for UC. I love the fact that they are in the tourney discussion in mid-February. Sure beats the last two years. However, I happen to agree that if the bracket were announced TODAY...they would not be invited. UC still has work to take care of.

I think Lunardi's likely correct, but I don't think Lunardi's take right now is as bad as it sounds on the surface.

For UC to get any NCAA consideration, they need to finish no worse than 3-3 during the rest of the regular season, plus tack on another win in the Big East tournament. Regardless, three more regular season wins would require UC to beat at least one team included in the bracket (Pitt, Louisville, West Virginia, Syracuse). If UC loses to all four of those teams and finishes no better than 2-4, they'll miss the tournament anyway unless they make some serious noise in the Big East tourney.

FWIW, Lunardi is also right that we should be rooting for both Georgetown and Notre Dame to finish strong.

EDIT: And on the contrary, we need Providence to trip up and suffer some losses.

[shaunsimpson]

The tournament win would have to be a decent win. there is a good chance of it being a decent team since we will get a bye if we go 3-3 and end up playing the 9,10, 11 seed as long as there is not an upset. .

[ralph1950]

I think Lunardi's likely correct, but I don't think Lunardi's take right now is as bad as it sounds on the surface.

For UC to get any NCAA consideration, they need to finish no worse than 3-3 during the rest of the regular season, plus tack on another win in the Big East tournament. Regardless, three more regular season wins would require UC to beat at least one team included in the bracket (Pitt, Louisville, West Virginia, Syracuse). If UC loses to all four of those teams and finishes no better than 2-4, they'll miss the tournament anyway unless they make some serious noise in the Big East tourney.

FWIW, Lunardi is also right that we should be rooting for both Georgetown and Notre Dame to finish strong.

EDIT: And on the contrary, we need Providence to trip up and suffer some losses.

Joe Lunardi is not on the NCAA Selection Committee, his opinion is totally worthless in the selection process. Today is February 13 not March 15, the selection is made on March 15 based on the team's record on March 15, not on their record at Feb. 13. What if Temple wins the A-10 Tourney, that throws everyone's projection off. All of these projections are for amusement purposes only, none should ever be taken seriously.