2007-08 Schedule

[Bearcat_DF]

Here is a blurb from Mike DeCoursey:

" Trying to recover from a dreadful season, Cincinnati has not done itself any scheduling favors. The Bearcats are stuck with visits to UAB and Illinois State, in addition to their annual trip to Xavier, a visit from loaded Memphis and the second half of a home-and-home at N.C. State. The administration balked at buying out of the Illinois State game, which at least would have made a dent in the challenge of turning around the program. . . ."

so with the BE going to 18 games - that means 12 OOC games -
7 home games against relative cupcakes
Memphis at home
on the road to
UAB
Illinois State
Xavier
NC State

Sorry Tom, I don't see 20 wins.

Go Cats!
DF

[Bearcat Fan Since 1958]

Here is a blurb from Mike DeCoursey:

" Trying to recover from a dreadful season, Cincinnati has not done itself any scheduling favors. The Bearcats are stuck with visits to UAB and Illinois State, in addition to their annual trip to Xavier, a visit from loaded Memphis and the second half of a home-and-home at N.C. State. The administration balked at buying out of the Illinois State game, which at least would have made a dent in the challenge of turning around the program. . . ."

so with the BE going to 18 games - that means 12 OOC games -
7 home games against relative cupcakes
Memphis at home
on the road to
UAB
Illinois State
Xavier
NC State

Sorry Tom, I don't see 20 wins.

Go Cats!
DF

12 OOC - 18 BEast - 2 BEast tourney - 2 postseason (NIT).

8-4, 10-8, 1-1, 1-1. There's 20-14 at the end of the season.

[columbus_bearcat]

1958 -

Hope your right, I could live with that.

[Inchickinkick]

i think is team is blessed

[tophat]

With 18 BE games and several tough OC games, many on the road, this may be the toughest schedule in our history. It looks brutal at this point.

[Bearcat Fan Since 1958]

With 18 BE games and several tough OC games, many on the road, this may be the toughest schedule in our history. It looks brutal at this point.

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=2000&team=Cincinnati Toughest Bearcat schedule might be this one.

[Bearcat_DF]

Tom,

We'll have to file this one away because we will be able to check it at the end of the season. In 2000 - the SOS was ranked 5th.

1-50 51-100 101-200 201+
W-L W-L W-L W-L
10-2 9-1 7-0 2-0

I'm guessing we are going to see more than 12 games against the top 50.

From the site, it appears they only played 2 teams in the top 10 (Iowa St. (6) and Temple (7)).

I'm guessing we will see more than 2 top 10 teams and at least one in the top 5.

It will be interesting to see at the end of the season if this schedule or the 2000 schedule is the toughest.

Go Cats!
DF

[tophat]

It's a no brainer in my mind that a schedule stuffed with 18 games in the BE is infinitely tougher than a CUSA schedule. SOS ratings are not the last word. Schedules can be manipulated to reflect high SOS ratings. As I recall they don't fully reflect diff between home/away/neutral sites.

[Bearcat_DF]

Tophat,

I agree that at first glance, a BE schedule (especially with 18 games) should routinely be better than a C-USA.

I disagree that the SOS isn't a good measure. It may not be perfect, but it does provide an objective yardstick to begin a conversation. You may want to dicker with some of the nuances within the measure, but it seems it is a good starting place.

It seems the key to having a high SOS is managing the lower caliber teams. It is probably in this area where this year''s schedule will be weaker than the 2000 schedule. Huggins and staff were very good at scheduling. For the home games (money games), they would schedule teams that would keep their RPI rating above 200 - Oakland, UNC-Wilmington, Murrary State, most of the MAC teams, etc. It is the Woffords that bring a SOS down.

FWIW - The Missouri Valley Conference has figured this out - they were the 6th ranked conference! Ahead of the Big 12. Of course, the other key, more important ingredient, is beating your OOC opponents.

I expect to see the 7 home games against teams like Wofford, Howard, Tennessee Martin, etc. I think it will be a smart move to schedule this caliber of team for the first 7 games so that this team can learn to play together.

Go Cats!
DF

[tophat]

I don't see any disagreement, DF. I agree that the SOS rating is an objective yardstick to start a conversation. That's a far cry from being definitive. You've also made my point that a schedule can be manipulated in order to raise the rating in a way that doesn't necessarily make a given schedule truly more difficult than another one. And I completely agree that Huggins was a master at doing this.

[Bearcat_DF]

Tophat,

You are right. There isn't a big disagreement, though I want to argue back.

I think that there is more than an appearance of a schedule being more difficult. In a couple of years, when we have are feet up under us, I hope we are scheduling top teams from the Missouri Valley, Murray State, etc. instead of Wofford.

I believe this type of scheduling is good on two levels. 1) Playing these teams will help prepare us for BE play. 2) It builds the team's resume for an at large bid to the NCAA tournament and helps with seeding.

Compare Michigan St. (SOS - 9) and Syracuse (SOS 46) last year.

Mich St. 22-11 goes to the dance, Syracus 22-10 goes to the NIT.
top 50 - MSU - 6-9; SU 3-6
51-100 - MSU - 3-2; SU 5-2
101 - 200 - MSU 9-0; SU 8-2
200 + - MSU 4-0; SU 6-0

I think MSU had the more difficult schedule.

An important point - just being in the BE will not insure we have a great SOS or an at-large resume.

Go Cats!
DF

[tophat]

Tophat,

You are right. There isn't a big disagreement, though I want to argue back.

I think that there is more than an appearance of a schedule being more difficult. In a couple of years, when we have are feet up under us, I hope we are scheduling top teams from the Missouri Valley, Murray State, etc. instead of Wofford.

I believe this type of scheduling is good on two levels. 1) Playing these teams will help prepare us for BE play. 2) It builds the team's resume for an at large bid to the NCAA tournament and helps with seeding.

Compare Michigan St. (SOS - 9) and Syracuse (SOS 46) last year.

Mich St. 22-11 goes to the dance, Syracus 22-10 goes to the NIT.
top 50 - MSU - 6-9; SU 3-6
51-100 - MSU - 3-2; SU 5-2
101 - 200 - MSU 9-0; SU 8-2
200 + - MSU 4-0; SU 6-0

I think MSU had the more difficult schedule.

An important point - just being in the BE will not insure we have a great SOS or an at-large resume.

Go Cats!
DF

DF,

I didn't refer to SOS as only an appearance, but rather as a starting point, as by no means conclusive.

Of course, I agree with your desire for a preseason schedule that will prepare us for what comes later. I believe that the upcoming OOC schedule is just as dangerous as most under Huggins, from what little I know. I see four tough road games and a powerful Memphis team. Huggs played good OOC teams usually at home or on neutral floors and in preseason tournaments, not often at their places. It helped build a high SOS with less risk. Virtually every year we entered conference play with no more than one or two losses. It was practically a given. His teams were good, but not THAT good, as the NCAA performances confirmed.

I don't doubt Mich played a tougher schedule than Cuse, but conspicuously missing from your stats is where the games were played. Where you play is very important.

It's conceivable that a schedule based on CUSA could possibly be more difficult than one built around 18 games in the BE, but it would reqire a suicidal OOC schedule.