Firmly on the Bubble

[misterfresh]

According to ESPN's Bubble Watch (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=88)...

The Cats have faced six teams that are on the bubble(seven games because of Providence).

UC sports a 4-3 record versus those teams:

Wins

UNLV (RPI 49)
UAB (40)
Notre Dame (73)
West Virginia (15)


Losses

Florida State (19)
Providence (71, twice)


They did not list Mississippi State or Georgetown as "bubble teams."

Syracuse (RPI 22) looms. I would rest much easier with a win versus the Orange. In theory, that would give the 'Cats a tie-break against as many as seven other "bubble teams."

Regardless, I'm proud of this team and extremely pleased with the progress that has been displayed this season.

Go 'Cats!

[Forsure21]

Again. IMO we aren't competing against other teams. IMO, the BE is going to get 8 teams for sure in and with that we are competing against Providence for that 8th spot.

[ralph1950]

As I have stated it all comes down to getting a win at Syracuse.

[misterfresh]

Well, I disagree. At the beginning of the year this league was "a lock" for nine or ten teams. Now ESPN is only listing seven. So based on that alone(not that its gospel) the eighth place team is in the NIT.

What if the ninth place team gets to the BIG EAST Tournament final? That tacks on three more victories against quality opponents...The standings aren't the only bearing.

[misterfresh]

As I have stated it all comes down to getting a win at Syracuse.

Yessir. Win out and its no doubt.

[CatsClaw]

As I have stated it all comes down to getting a win at Syracuse.

You're wrong. It doesn't come down to Syracuse.

[jeffto]

Well, I disagree. At the beginning of the year this league was "a lock" for nine or ten teams. Now ESPN is only listing seven. So based on that alone(not that its gospel) the eighth place team is in the NIT.

What if the ninth place team gets to the BIG EAST Tournament final? That tacks on three more victories against quality opponents...The standings aren't the only bearing.I think 9 is still possible - IF there aren't too many lesser conference upsets. This is just a weak year for bubbles. If the Butlers and Utah States of the world win their conference tourneys, we could see more room for Big East and ACC teams.

[jeffto]

You're wrong. It doesn't come down to Syracuse.A win at Syr gives us about 10 places in RPI rankings. Pretty important, but probably not the last hope of making the tourney.

[Bearcat Fan Since 1958]

A win at Syr gives us about 10 places in RPI rankings. Pretty important, but probably not the last hope of making the tourney.

Didn't UC win at Syracuse in 2006? (Think so, not sure)

It didn't help then.

[misterfresh]

I think 9 is still possible - IF there aren't too many lesser conference upsets. This just a weak year for bubbles. If the Butlers and Utah States of the world win their conference tourneys, we could see more room for Big East and ACC teams.

Yeah, I'll be watching those conference tournament games closely. We also don't need any underachieving or lesser teams going Syracuse in the big conference tourneys either.

[jeffto]

Didn't UC win at Syracuse in 2006? (Think so, not sure)

It didn't help then.Help with what? It got them to 6-6 in the conference (ending at 8-8). They played 5 more conference games after that and lost 3 of them. I don't think beating Syr that year is comparable to this year. Completely different situation.

[misterfresh]

Didn't UC win at Syracuse in 2006? (Think so, not sure)

It didn't help then.

That was the year Syracuse won the Big East Tournament...at the same time bursting UC's bubble.

[ucfan1980]

I am very glad I was wrong. I predicted WVU by 15+. Watching wvu on tv has had me terrified. I am a victim of score/opponent counting. Uc played their tails off. Thanks u Mick and thank u bearcats...

Also want to add the I was very impressed with the fans cheering for Huggs then only cheering for the cats. I have a greater respect for the average fan. They really do care about the cats and I was wrong about that. Thank you everyone for your loyalty. I hope this completely changes my outlook!

[misterfresh]

I am very glad I was wrong. I predicted WVU by 15+. Watching wvu on tv has had me terrified. I am a victim of score/opponent counting. Uc played their tails off. Thanks u Mick and thank u bearcats...

Also want to add the I was very impressed with the fans cheering for Huggs then only cheering for the cats. I have a greater respect for the average fan. They really do care about the cats and I was wrong about that. Thank you everyone for your loyalty. I hope this completely changes my outlook!

Apologies, but I think that belongs in another thread. Good comments, though.

[Scheids21]

WVU couldnt buy a bucket. I feel very fortunate we came away with a win tonight.

[jeffto]

That was the year Syracuse won the Big East Tournament...at the same time bursting UC's bubble.Yeah, they beat us by 1. They finished 7-9 regular season so they did probably take our ticket.

[BearcatMax54]

Florida St. ISNT a bubble team... UC getting in the tournament doesn't rely on beating Syrcause. Would it help? Yes. Does it end our chances if we lose? No.

[jeffto]

Florida St. ISNT a bubble team... UC getting in the tournament doesn't rely on beating Syrcause. Would it help? Yes. Does it end our chances if we lose? No.I think that if we win, we're in pretty much regardless of what happens in the conf. tourney. If we lose we have to show something in the conf. tourney to make it.

[jeffto]

WVU couldnt buy a bucket. I feel very fortunate we came away with a win tonight.Great defense does that. (I think that's what people wrote when UC couldn't buy a bucket against Marq - or somebody)

[London 'Cat]

WVU couldnt buy a bucket. I feel very fortunate we came away with a win tonight.

Yes, WVU shot poorly in the second half - 25%. From what I watched, it was because UC's defense forced WVU into some shots that were not optimal. Further, the 'Cats had a hand in the face of many shots. Solid defensive effort by the 'Cats tonight.

[Bp4thebest]

IF we go 2-1 to finish, losing to syracuse and we beat prov in the 8 9 game we would get in over them IF the con gets 8 teams.. yes they have beaten us twice but we would have a better resume. IF we beat syracuse lose to usf and win 8 9 game we are prob in. Any way you look at it the SH game is a must. IF we win the next three we are in.. Gotta atleast take three of next four.. at least prob win out! we gotta small chance!

[dp3113]

Didn't UC win at Syracuse in 2006? (Think so, not sure)

It didn't help then.

to answer your question- we DID win at Syracuse that regular season.

we did however, lose to them in the first round of the conference tournament (at MSG) by 1 on a McNamara running 3 pointer.

[BearcatMax54]

I think that if we win, we're in pretty much regardless of what happens in the conf. tourney. If we lose we have to show something in the conf. tourney to make it.

I agree with that, we match up with Cuse well. IF Mike is healthy and able to go I think we have a shot to win it.

[nyCat99]

Didn't UC win at Syracuse in 2006? (Think so, not sure)

It didn't help then.

We also beat WVU at home in 2006; a game I thought earned us a bid at the time but I guess McNamara's shot knocked us out. Although George Mason was a bubble squad who got in over us too, and they made the committee look better by going to the Final 4.

As for this year, I'd like to think 3 more wins before Selection Sunday no matter how they come earns us our dancing shoes.

[BearcatMax54]

IF we go 2-1 to finish, losing to syracuse and we beat prov in the 8 9 game we would get in over them IF the con gets 8 teams.. yes they have beaten us twice but we would have a better resume. IF we beat syracuse lose to usf and win 8 9 game we are prob in. Any way you look at it the SH game is a must. IF we win the next three we are in.. Gotta atleast take three of next four.. at least prob win out! we gotta small chance!

Watch out for the Providence at Rutgers game. Providence might have a let down and Rutgers gave ND fits the other night at ND. That could be a trap for Providence.

[LongTimer]

According to ESPN's Bubble Watch (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=88)...

The Cats have faced six teams that are on the bubble(seven games because of Providence).

UC sports a 4-3 record versus those teams:

Wins

UNLV (RPI 49)
UAB (40)
Notre Dame (73)
West Virginia (15)


Losses

Florida State (19)
Providence (71, twice)


They did not list Mississippi State or Georgetown as "bubble teams."

Syracuse (RPI 22) looms. I would rest much easier with a win versus the Orange. In theory, that would give the 'Cats a tie-break against as many as seven other "bubble teams."

Regardless, I'm proud of this team and extremely pleased with the progress that has been displayed this season.

Go 'Cats!

I have a bad feeling that the home loss to Providence is going to be thorn in our sides.

[nyCat99]

I believe that both Providence and UC can get into the tournament. Further, I do not believe that we have 2 bad losses b/c they beat us. I'll give you the home game, but not the one at Prov. If the Friars beat Rutgers, they'll win 10 conf. games with one left against 'Nova. I'd like to believe we get in with a 10-8 record too.

[coach]

boys, forget all of the analysis of the bubble and records, et. al. the remaining breath of our schedule will ride on mr gates and whether or not he can put them over the top. we do not have a point guard, and probably have a hobbled mike williams. all of the analysis will make little difference. it's either gates time, or NIT time. believe it!

[Pharmfam]

to answer your question- we DID win at Syracuse that regular season.

we did however, lose to them in the first round of the conference tournament (at MSG) by 1 on a McNamara running 3 pointer.

We also lost to Syracuse earlier that same regular season at the Shoe. I remember an obnoxious Gary McNamara fan sitting behind me. The 2 regular season games kind of cancelled each other out. Then the win vs. WVU and I was sure we were in. Then the loss to SU at MSG and the committee was sure we were out.

[juckerrules]

WVU couldnt buy a bucket. I feel very fortunate we came away with a win tonight.

If Toyloy et al. could hit free throws, the Cats would have won this going away - WV should feel fortunate they weren't blown out like last year

[Bearcat Jeff]

If the Cats beat Syracuse and lose to either S.Hall or S. Florida it won't matter. The Cats need to win out but can lose at Syracuse and still have some hope with the conference tournament. They cannot have any bad losses. In my opinion it hurts more to lose a bad game at this point.

[ME80]

WVU couldnt buy a bucket. I feel very fortunate we came away with a win tonight.

Yes but they also banked in 2- 3 pointers and a couple of free throws.

[MicksTheGuy]

If Toyloy et al. could hit free throws, the Cats would have won this going away - WV should feel fortunate they weren't blown out like last year

Yes and don't forget those prayer three pointers that banked hard off the glass that went in as well or all of the stupid techinical calls the had on us!

[shaunsimpson]

If the Cats beat Syracuse and lose to either S.Hall or S. Florida it won't matter. The Cats need to win out but can lose at Syracuse and still have some hope with the conference tournament. They cannot have any bad losses. In my opinion it hurts more to lose a bad game at this point.

I have the exact opposite thought. I think the thing keeping us out right now is the lack of good wins - although, tonight helped a lot in that department.

To me a win @ Syracuse helps more than a loss @ USF. Of course none of us know for sure.

[bearcatmark]

A win at Syracuse puts us on pretty solid ground baring a collapse in our last 3 games (final two and conference tournament). I really like our chances of winning at Syracuse though i'd like them a lot more if i knew Mike was going to be back. As an offense we absolutely dismantle zones with him in the games. Has anyone noticed the percentages UC continues to shoot from the floor game in and game out? Just great shot selection.

Yancy picked a nice game to have his best day in Bearcat uniform.

[Mick's Da Man]

UC jumped from 57 to 50 in the rpi. 5-8 against the top 50 rpi teams. WVU is only 3-7 against them, but they're at 18 in the rpi.

[bearcatmark]

UC jumped from 57 to 50 in the rpi. 5-8 against the top 50 rpi teams. WVU is only 3-7 against them, but they're at 18 in the rpi.

That's all Bob being a master of scheduling... Avoiding those low RPI teams so that the good games keep their RPI high.

I think UC is sitting in a really strong situation right now though. We beat Syracuse, baring a collapse we will be dancing.

[shaunsimpson]

UC jumped from 57 to 50 in the rpi. 5-8 against the top 50 rpi teams. WVU is only 3-7 against them, but they're at 18 in the rpi.

That is my issue with the RPI. I really think that anyone from 200 or 250 down should be considered the same. Is there a huge difference between 200 and 300?

[Kindog202]

I think if we win at Syracuse, we can afford to lose at USF. I still think this WVU win even without a Syracuse win puts us in the tourney as long as we beat USF and Seton Hall and don't lose to a team seeded behind us in the Big East tourney. A win at Syracuse gives us some cushion in my opinion.

[LongTimer]

boys, forget all of the analysis of the bubble and records, et. al. the remaining breath of our schedule will ride on mr gates and whether or not he can put them over the top. we do not have a point guard, and probably have a hobbled mike williams. all of the analysis will make little difference. it's either gates time, or NIT time. believe it!

Interesting post coach. You may be right. If the light came on for Gates last night, who knows where he could take us. I said a few days ago, we're one of those teams that could surprise teams in the NCAA. We've proven that we can compete well with Top 10 teams, so those should not scare us at all. We're a much better team now than when we played a lot of those Top 10 teams. It's not far fetched to think we could hit a hot weekend and get to the sweet 16. I guarantee you this, whichever 5 or 6 seed draws us is not going to be celebrating that much. We could be dangerous.

[ralph1950]

It all comes down to beating Syracuse at Syracuse. Lose at Syracuse and UC can start printing the NIT tickets.

[STKohls]

That is my issue with the RPI. I really think that anyone from 200 or 250 down should be considered the same. Is there a huge difference between 200 and 300?

In some cases it's the difference between the team that wins one of the smaller conferences and the team that's the doormat for that conference.

Huggins said in an interview (years and years ago) that he didn't mind playing teams from those minor conferences, as long as the team he was playing was contending for the conference title.

[LongTimer]

If the Cats beat Syracuse and lose to either S.Hall or S. Florida it won't matter. The Cats need to win out but can lose at Syracuse and still have some hope with the conference tournament. They cannot have any bad losses. In my opinion it hurts more to lose a bad game at this point.

I almost think finishing in 9th place would be preferable to finishing in 8th place and here's why. If we finish 8th, yes we get a bye, but we probably open against the 9th seed, which could be a ND, G-Town, WVU, or Syracuse, and we could easily get beaten in the first game of the tourney. A bye does not help us because we probably won't make a long run in the BE tourney anyway. A first round loss in the tourney will probably kill us. If we finish 9th, or better yet tie for 7th or 8th with 2 or 3 teams and earn the 9th seed in the tiebreaker, we essentially become the #1 seed of the first round which puts us against Depaul and almost a guaranteed win. Then our 2nd round game is against the 8 seed and a good possibility of another win. One or two wins in the BE tourney puts us in the dance I think. Unless we can get up to the 6 or 7 seed, I think 9th is where we want to be. However, then you have that psychological barrier of falling in the bottom half of the league to overcome with the committee.

[LongTimer]

It all comes down to beating Syracuse at Syracuse. Lose at Syracuse and UC can start printing the NIT tickets.

Ralph, please think positive and quit fixating on the NIT. Nobody in here wants anything to do with the NIT!

[shaunsimpson]

I almost think finishing in 9th place would be preferable to finishing in 8th place and here's why. If we finish 8th, yes we get a bye, but we probably open against the 9th seed, which could be a ND, G-Town, WVU, or Syracuse, and we could easily get beaten in the first game of the tourney. A bye does not help us because we probably won't make a long run in the BE tourney anyway. A first round loss in the tourney will probably kill us. If we finish 9th, or better yet tie for 7th or 8th with 2 or 3 teams and earn the 9th seed in the tiebreaker, we essentially become the #1 seed of the first round which puts us against Depaul and almost a guaranteed win. Then our 2nd round game is against the 8 seed and a good possibility of another win. One or two wins in the BE tourney puts us in the dance I think. Unless we can get up to the 6 or 7 seed, I think 9th is where we want to be. However, then you have that psychological barrier of falling in the bottom half of the league to overcome with the committee.

I think that if we play Providence in the first round of the tournament it is a play in game much like last years Villanova/Syracuse game. The first round game will be useless as the wins will not be our issue, but the quality wins. I don't think a conference tournament is looked at that strongly unless something crazy happens like UC winning their game in the 3rd round. To me a game vs Depaul is worthless and a lose only.

[Mick's Da Man]

I think that if we play Providence in the first round of the tournament it is a play in game much like last years Villanova/Syracuse game. The first round game will be useless as the wins will not be our issue, but the quality wins. I don't think a conference tournament is looked at that strongly unless something crazy happens like UC winning their game in the 3rd round. To me a game vs Depaul is worthless and a lose only.

I'd like to play Providence again. If we'd beat them, it would kind of right a wrong in the eyes of the committee, I would think.

[ralph1950]

Ralph, please think positive and quit fixating on the NIT. Nobody in here wants anything to do with the NIT!

Not positive or negative, merely stating what Joe Lunardi and Dustin Dow and others who have gone through the Selection Committee exercise with the NCAA know. UC lacks the quality road win that gets them off the bubble. The only opportunity to get that win is Sunday at Syracuse, it is do or die Sunday for the Bearcats.

[LongTimer]

Not positive or negative, merely stating what Joe Lunardi and Dustin Dow and others who have gone through the Selection Committee exercise with the NCAA know. UC lacks the quality road win that gets them off the bubble. The only opportunity to get that win is Sunday at Syracuse, it is do or die Sunday for the Bearcats.

We're in unless we play our way out and losing to Syracuse in the Carrier Dome is not playing our way out. If we get blown out by 30, then that would hurt. The only scenario I see stopping us is losing to S. Fla. or Seton Hall, or losing in the 1st game of the BE tourney (if we have also lost to Syracuse). If we beat Syracuse, then losing at S. Fla might be ok if we come back and beat SH and win in the first round of the tourney. Lots of possibilities, but I believe many more of the possibilities favor us getting in rather than out. We got in with a 17-11 record in Conference USA. There are 5 top ten teams in the BE. That has got to weigh a lot on the committee's minds. Putting a team like UAB in and leaving us out would make a travesty of the whole process.

[LongTimer]

Not positive or negative, merely stating what Joe Lunardi and Dustin Dow and others who have gone through the Selection Committee exercise with the NCAA know. UC lacks the quality road win that gets them off the bubble. The only opportunity to get that win is Sunday at Syracuse, it is do or die Sunday for the Bearcats.

Ralph you have been wishing for the NIT all year. That tournament should never come up for discussion. Nobody wants it. It is a loser's tournament. This program and this team are better than that.

[JasonS]

I found it interesting listening to Dan Hoard last night after the game. He mentioned that the selection committee does not have the breakdown of teams vs. Top 25 RPI, only vs Top 50. With this being the case, UC has 5 such wins verse Top 50 which is as many as Xavier, Memphis, Purdue, Wake Forest, Clemson, UNLV, Florida St, Syracuse, Arizona St, and Tennessee. UC has more Top 50 wins than Washington, Missouri, Arizona, Minnesota, Providence, Kentucky, Maryland, Boston College, Utah, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, West Virginia, UCLA, Dayton, Florida, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Miami-FL, Butler, and South Carolina.

I got this from Lance's blog and he has it broken out by number of wins. I thought it was interesting to look at how many bubble teams are below us and how many of those teams are not only projected to be in the tourney but are "locks" to be in. Granted, some of these teams will earn an automatic bid, but most will not.

[long suffering UC fan]

Yeah, they beat us by 1. They finished 7-9 regular season so they did probably take our ticket.

Syracuse was also a bubble team before the BEAST tournament that year. Granted, they won it, but they moved way up in the brackets - I think all the way up to a 5 seed. Goes to show how much can change on one shot.

That shot was a brutal way to lose - crappy desperate throw that went in -, and if it hadn't UC had a decent shot at an at-large bid.

[Kindog202]

Syracuse was also a bubble team before the BEAST tournament that year. Granted, they won it, but they moved way up in the brackets - I think all the way up to a 5 seed. Goes to show how much can change on one shot.

That shot was a brutal way to lose - crappy desperate throw that went in -, and if it hadn't UC had a decent shot at an at-large bid.

Mistake>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[shaunsimpson]

Not positive or negative, merely stating what Joe Lunardi and Dustin Dow and others who have gone through the Selection Committee exercise with the NCAA know. UC lacks the quality road win that gets them off the bubble. The only opportunity to get that win is Sunday at Syracuse, it is do or die Sunday for the Bearcats.

Ralph - you say UAB is a lock and they don't have wins nearly as good as UC with only 2 in the top 100. Most had UC as one of the last four out before the WVU game so I imagine that would put us really close to being in if not in now.

How do you say they are in, but not UC?

[ralph1950]

Ralph you have been wishing for the NIT all year. That tournament should never come up for discussion. Nobody wants it. It is a loser's tournament. This program and this team are better than that.

Not wishing for the NIT, I only state the reality of the situation, which gets lost on many posters. The reality is for an at large bid it is win on Sunday or go to the NIT.

[ralph1950]

Ralph - you say UAB is a lock and they don't have wins nearly as good as UC with only 2 in the top 100. Most had UC as one of the last four out before the WVU game so I imagine that would put us really close to being in if not in now.

How do you say they are in, but not UC?

UAB's RPI is 40, that is close to being a for sure at large as 78% of the teams with RPI's 31 to 40 have made the tourney as at large bids, I have the stats going back to when the current RPI was put in place in 1994. Teams with an RPI of 51 to 60, where UC is right now, historically have a 34% chance of getting an at large bid.

[Thegreatone]

Come on Ralph RPI doesnt matter.

We can lose to Syracuse and get it.

We would have to beat Seaton Hall, South Florida, and the 1st game in the Big East tournament.

[Jet23]

I found it interesting listening to Dan Hoard last night after the game. He mentioned that the selection committee does not have the breakdown of teams vs. Top 25 RPI, only vs Top 50. With this being the case, UC has 5 such wins verse Top 50 which is as many as Xavier, Memphis, Purdue, Wake Forest, Clemson, UNLV, Florida St, Syracuse, Arizona St, and Tennessee. UC has more Top 50 wins than Washington, Missouri, Arizona, Minnesota, Providence, Kentucky, Maryland, Boston College, Utah, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, West Virginia, UCLA, Dayton, Florida, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Miami-FL, Butler, and South Carolina.

I got this from Lance's blog and he has it broken out by number of wins. I thought it was interesting to look at how many bubble teams are below us and how many of those teams are not only projected to be in the tourney but are "locks" to be in. Granted, some of these teams will earn an automatic bid, but most will not.


Great post. It all comes down to what criteria the committee decides to focus on. IMO their record against the top 25 is skewed, because the majority of the losses were against the RPI top 10. They have lost against the RPI #1, 5, 8, 10, 11, 14 & 19 teams. Their only bad losses were against Providence (RPI #71) which has the ability to beat anyone.

There are bubble teams with great wins, but many of them also have terrible losses. For example, Maryland's win over North Carolina should be negated by their loss to Morgan State (RPI 150).

I do think they need to beat Syracuse to be comfortable. If not, they will have to take care of business and win a couple in the tourney.

Either way, this has been a great year. I agree that if they make the tourney, they can surprise some people. The tourney is just not the same without blowing off work on a Thursday or Friday in order to watch the Cats play in the show. If not, I will still enjoy the NIT

[Kindog202]

Ralph, with all due respect, most of your posts are rooted in fantasy as opposed to reality. In fact, I'm happy that you feel that way, because it makes me feel very confident that even if we lose to Syracuse on Sunday that they will still get in, barring an upset in their remaining games.

[GoCats1994]

According to ESPN's Bubble Watch (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=88)...

The Cats have faced six teams that are on the bubble(seven games because of Providence).

UC sports a 4-3 record versus those teams:

Wins

UNLV (RPI 49)
UAB (40)
Notre Dame (73)
West Virginia (15)


Losses

Florida State (19)
Providence (71, twice)




It's possible that they could face WVU, ND and/or Providence again. This book is still being written...nothing etched in stone in terms of "tie-breakers"

That is my issue with the RPI. I really think that anyone from 200 or 250 down should be considered the same. Is there a huge difference between 200 and 300?

200 = Bowling Green (13-11) with single-digit point spread losses AT Minnesota and Ohio St
300 = Centenary (7-21) which boasts wins over Troy, Alcorn St, Oakland, Western Illinois, IUPUI, Southern Utah, & UMKC

Granted - a "tourney caliber" team should be able to beat both...but there is a difference between 200 & 300.

[Mick's Da Man]

UAB's RPI is 40, that is close to being a for sure at large as 78% of the teams with RPI's 31 to 40 have made the tourney as at large bids, I have the stats going back to when the current RPI was put in place in 1994. Teams with an RPI of 51 to 60, where UC is right now, historically have a 34% chance of getting an at large bid.

Cool........because UC currently sits at 50 in the rpi, so their chances are far better than you project. ;) :D

[Jet23]

Cool........because UC currently sits at 50 in the rpi, so their chances are far better than you project. ;) :D

Plus, the RPI is simply not used like it once was. 5 so years ago, a top 40 rpi team was a lock to make the tournament. Now, they use the RPI more as a tool to judge quality wins, bad loss and strength of schedule.

[ucfan1980]

Apologies, but I think that belongs in another thread. Good comments, though.

I was drunk unfortunately...Couldnt see straight so i picked a random thread!

[bearcat_red]

It all comes down to beating Syracuse at Syracuse. Lose at Syracuse and UC can start printing the NIT tickets.

I disagree. If they lose to Syracuse, then win the last two conference games and win a game or two in the BE tourney they should also get in. If they beat Syracuse and lose to one of the teams we should beat and then lose in the first round of the BE tournament, they probably will not get in.

[behrlezt]

Come on Ralph RPI doesnt matter.

We can lose to Syracuse and get it.

We would have to beat Seaton Hall, South Florida, and the 1st game in the Big East tournament.

Completely agree!!!! Syracuse is a big game but only if we win...if we take care of business the final two games and get a win in the tournament i think the Cats will be in the NCAA. I don't see Syracuse as a must win but i do see it as a huge boost to the resume if we pull it out.

[ralph1950]

Completely agree!!!! Syracuse is a big game but only if we win...if we take care of business the final two games and get a win in the tournament i think the Cats will be in the NCAA. I don't see Syracuse as a must win but i do see it as a huge boost to the resume if we pull it out.

If UC loses to Syracuse, unfortunately, you will find out on Selection Sunday that I am absolutely correct, only way to change that is to win 3 or 4 games in the Big East tourney on a neutral court.

[wally]

I believe two more regular season wins and one tourney win get us to the dance. I would breathe easier if we knock off syracuse on sunday.:cool:

[Ding Chavez]

Plus, the RPI is simply not used like it once was. 5 so years ago, a top 40 rpi team was a lock to make the tournament. Now, they use the RPI more as a tool to judge quality wins, bad loss and strength of schedule.

Absolutely. Ever since they screwed with the formula and weighted home vs road games, the RPI hasn't been as reliable in predicting the field.

[jeffto]

Posted on March Madness All Season Long before last night's game...

Bubble Watch
AS OF FEBRUARY 26, 2009

Bubble Breakdown and Comparison

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. As we stated a couple of weeks ago, it will look at every team in the at-large mix hoping to grab one of the last spots for the NCAA Tournament. As the season enters its final two and a half weeks, the at-large picture is becoming slightly more clear – albeit very, very slightly. Teams are actually playing themselves into the Big Dance, while others are doing their best to avoid hearing their name called on Selection Sunday. Still, there are plenty of teams with a shot at getting one of the last few at-large invitations to the field. There is a lot of basketball left to played, though. According to the numbers, there are 12 bids still up for grabs, with 27 teams vying for them:

Locks: 24
Automatic bids from the other conferences: 20
44 Locks Overall

ACC (4): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest
Big East (5): Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette
Big Ten (3): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Big 12 (3): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Pac-10 (3): Washington, Arizona State, UCLA
SEC (1): LSU
Atlantic-10 (1): Xavier
Conference-USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Mountain West (1): Utah
West Coast (1): Gonzaga

One-Bid Conferences (21): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC

Teams that need to keep winning to avoid the bubble – these bids are not up for grabs yet (9): Florida State, Boston College**, West Virginia L, Syracuse, Ohio State, Minnesota** L, Texas, California W, Arizona**L

** In the most precarious position of the group

Note: Utah State, Davidson and Siena are not included, as they are the current leaders in their respective conferences

RANKINGS OF BUBBLE TEAMS
1. Tennessee
2. South Carolina
3. Wisconsin
4. Dayton
5. Kentucky
6. UNLV
7. BYU
8. Florida
9. Saint Mary's
10. Temple L
11. Penn State
12. Providence
13. Virginia Tech
14. Maryland
15. Oklahoma State
16. Cincinnati W
17. UAB L
18. Creighton
19. Miami (Fl.) W
20. USC L
21. San Diego State
22. Texas A&M
23. Kansas State
24. Michigan W
25. Notre Dame
26. Rhode Island
27. New Mexico

Edit: Results since the list was posted

[Kindog202]

It looks like they have us out right now, but has not been updated since the WVU game.

[Forsure21]

I just want to know why a team like South Carolina who only has 1 top50rpi win is getting so much consideration? I think it is just because they are near the top of their confrence.

[cornelius]

I dont know if anyone has posted this yet, but it made me feel a little bit better about our chances. This is from cbssportsline.com.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bubble

Cincinnati (18-10, 8-7 Big East)

Pros
An SOS in the top 30 and an RPI hovering around the top 50. Wins of note: vs. West Virginia, vs. UAB, at UNLV, vs. Notre Dame, swept Georgetown.

Cons
A 1-7 record vs. teams in the RPI top 25. Swept by Providence, a fellow bubble team.

Outlook
Beating West Virginia gives them that elusive victory vs. a team ranked in the RPI top 25. The Bearcats have a very interesting resume with eight of their 10 losses to teams likely to make the NCAA tournament field and six victories over teams that should receive tournament consideration. It's hard to fathom that they don't get a bid. Win at Syracuse and it won't even be a question.

[Pie Hole]

If UC loses to Syracuse, unfortunately, you will find out on Selection Sunday that I am absolutely correct, only way to change that is to win 3 or 4 games in the Big East tourney on a neutral court.

One of the few times I have to agree with Ralph.