2007 Bearcatnews.com Football Preview

[jkwuc89]

I wrote and posted this yesterday (link is near the top of the main Bearcatnews.com site). I would be interested in hearing what others thought of it. I tried to be realistic with my season projection.

[bearcatfan]

I think it was a good article and I agree with most of it.

I think if UC is going to beat a big team at home this year it may just be Louisville. Louisville has the weapons but they will have a new coach and system this year and I think it will help UC. UC's defense knows what to expect and has confidence from shutting them down at their place last season. If we could get a good loud pro-UC crowd it will help a lot.

I have UC winning anywhere from 6-8 games in the regular season. I think it is very possible for the Bearcats to start 5-0.

[jkwuc89]

When I came up with the 8 - 4 record projection, I pegged the following games as the most likely losses: at Rutgers, Louisville, at South Florida, West Virginia. I think UC will win one of two when they travel to Pitt and USF and I think beating Pitt will be easier than beating USF.

Coming off of last season's upset win over Rutgers, I just cannot see UC going to NJ and getting a win. Rutgers will have revenge on their minds. I think this game more than any other on the schedule has the potential to be the ugliest.

Louisville and West Virginia. The defense will need to play a nearly perfect game to give UC a chance. UC cannot win a shoot-out against either team.

[Justin Register]

Being realistic and somewhat optimistic, I also see them at 8-4, losing to Rutgers, USF, UofL, and WVU. However, I think they could go 6-6 or 9-3 on the same note. I think it'll take a couple of years before we can be very confident in a chance to win 9-10 games. Regardless, I think this is the most coverage/excitement I 've ever seen preseason, and I'm counting down until 8/30.

[Bearcat_DF]

The thing that troubles me the most is going 3-4 in the conference. I keep looking at the schedule and trying to find out how we can go 4-3. As you have said Keith - a near perfect game against WVU or U of L.

Also, I don't feel comfortable assuming a win over Oregon State. That would be a huge win for us. Glad it is at home.

Go Cats!
DF

[Rickriot]

I see 10-2. I am assuming this team is better than last years team. And we manhandled Rutgers last year and came close to Louisville. Both of those opponents may not be as good as they were last year. WVU will run away from us, and I'm worried about losing one of the two hot weather road games, either at San Diego St. or at USF. That puts UC with one conference loss and a outside chance at contending for a BE title if some one can knock off WVU. I really think this defense will keep us in every game and the offense will keep opponents off balance enough to win 10 games.

[BigDaddyCornHusker]

I'm with DF. I don't see Oregon State as a win for us. Oregon State has a good tradition and they are a solid team. Beating them would be great & would get the Cats some national attention. They'll be an excellent measure for our team.

Paul
UC 91

[bearcatmark]

last year Cincinnati played an absolutely brutal nonconference schedule, which included back to back games at Ohio State and at Virginia Tech. Those two games the Bearcats grew up a ton. Ohio State wore them down because UC could not move the ball as did VT.

I think that happened a lot with the Bearcats because Dantonio was a three runs and punt kind of coach. He tried to play straight up pound it football and it hurt us against the deep defenses. Our defense would shut teams down for a half...and then be dead by the 4th quarter. UC had a 4th quarter lead against VT before the defense got worn down, and was in the game until mid 3rd quarter against OSU.

I think those battles really improved the defense though.


The cats went 6-2 down the stretch... They lost a game at Louisville which i still blame the coaching staff for. UC ran 5 power runs and one pass on a predicatable down on their first two offensive possessions against Louisville(both of which they took over deep in Louisville territory. UC came away with a total of 3 points. That absolutely killed them. If the coaches took a chance early while Louisville was realing i think it was a difference game.

As it was eventually Louisville's great offense put drives together and they held on(UC did have the chance to win on the last play of the game...driving as close as the Louisville 9 while down 6.

UC was the only team to hold WVU scoreless in the first quarter. Then WVU hit a string of big plays and the game was over. Personally I think WVU is a tough matchup for UC. I also think Dantonio's 3 runs and punt strategy killed us..giving WVU too many chances to hit their big plays.


But the rest of that streak UC was great. UC physically manhandled both Rutgers 30-11, and South Florida 23-6. Those games the scores certainly matched the results. Neither Rutgers or South Florida could move the ball against the Bearcat defense. Against Rutgers CIncinnati struggled with some unforced turnovers early, but still managed to recover and dominate the game. I personally think we'll go to NJ and beat Rutgers again, because I cannot see Rutgers moving the ball on us this year.

I am less sure on USF, whom I believe has a QB that will perform better against us this season than last season. Plus last years UC/USF game was played in bad weather.

There are certainly questions about the Bearcats this year. I think the COach Kelly is going to make UC a much tougher team particularly offensively. The offense will be on the field longer, giving the defense(a defense which returns nearly everyone) a chance to be that much better. Statistically the Bearcat defense was not the best in the big east, but I would argue they were the best defense. The only times they struggled were against great offenses in games where the poor offensive philosophy of Dantonio caused them to be on the field entirely too long.

If the offense is improved, the defense will be there, this team could finish as high as 2nd in the Big East. Personally I see them finishing between 3-5.

I think WVU and Louisville will battle for the top spot(but both must come to Nippert, an environment i think people will find has improved greatly this season.),,, I think WVU takes the title because they host Louisville.

I think USF, Rutgers and UC battle for 3-5... The Bearcats must play both USF and Rutgers on the road, but these are teams the BEarcats physically dominated last year so we'll see how that goes. USF scares me more than Rutgers because they are a more balanced offense. If I had to guess right now i think they finish as follows:
3. USF
4. Cincinnati
5. Rutgers

Pitt has talent, but they looked awful last season late. I think Uconn is better than Syracuse, but we'll see how far Syracuse has come.

6. Pitt
7. Uconn
8. Syracuse


As for the schedule...
Southeast Missouri State- Easy win
ORegon State- This is a tossup. I think Oregon State will be the 2nd or 3rd best team we play all season. I think they are not as good as WVU, but possibly better than Louisville(particularly if Louisville takes time to adjust to the new coach). ORegon State returns nearly everyone from a team that went 10-4, finished strong and beat USC. What UC has in their favor is the ORegon State QB will be making his 2nd career start, on thursday night national tv on the road. Hopefully are defense can for him into mistakes.
Miami- Easy Win
Marshall - Win
SD St- Win
AT Rutgers- close win- I just think we match up better with Rutgers than every other team in the league. I think our defense will physically beat up their offense and really limit Ray Rice..just like last season. I know it's on the road... but i just like this matchup for us.
Louisville- Close Loss- I really do think we can steal this game, and I want this game more than any on the schedule. But Louisville could be even better than last season. They have much of their defense back, and Brohm as a senior. We'll see how both teams adjust to their coaches.
At Pittsburgh- Win- Revenge game...UC had an AWFUL end of the half and third quarter before making a run. The defense dominated much of the game, but again our poor strategy on offense and turnovers ultimately killed us.
At South Florida- Close loss. Again we dominated them last year. I see this team has improved, and they have the stability of having the same coaching staff.. I think we are about equal to South Florida...but they are at home..i'm taking them
Uconn- Win
WVU- 10-14 point loss. I think this is a national title caliber team with an offense we don't match up well with. We'll see.
@ Syracuse- win


So my most likely prediction is 9-3...4th in the Big East. I can see us finishing as high and 2nd and as low as 6th. It's always hard to project what a new staff will do... But we'll see.

I can see us winning as many as 11(unlikely), and as few as 7(unlikely)... more than likely i see us in the 8-10 range.

[Bearcat Chris]

Bearcat Chris only makes predictions he is confident in.

UC goes 10-2, and beats Clemson in the Gator Bowl!

Looses will be WV and Rutgers.

B.C.

[bearcatmark]

I just really don't see us losing to Rutgers... I think they are just a perfect matchup for us. There offense only does what our defense is great at stopping. Unless they get drastically improved QB play I don't see Rutgers beating UC.