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Old 02-18-2012, 08:45 PM   #1
jkwuc89
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Default Louisville Pregame/Prediction Thread

Need to close out the home stand with win #3. This would be a huge NCAA tourney resume booster and would put UC in front of Louisville in the Big East standings by effectively 2 games because UC would hold the head-2-head tiebreaker.
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Old 02-18-2012, 08:53 PM   #2
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Mick seems to have Pitino's number. I think it continues Thursday night:

'Cats - 61
'Cards - 55
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Old 02-18-2012, 09:03 PM   #3
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Although he only averages about 9 points per game, Peyton Siva will be a key to the game. His quickness allows UL to spread the floor and get open looks for both Kuric and Smith who are excellent shooters. When Siva struggles, UL struggles. Hopefully Cash and Dion can keep him in check and, if they can, UC fans will be very happy. Can't wait to get to 5/3 on Thursday night for the blackout!!!!!!!

Oh, and F Loserville!

UC 69
UL 63
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Old 02-18-2012, 10:18 PM   #4
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I won't make a prediction just yet tonight, just a few comments about the Cards. They're in your face for 40 minutes, pressing full court, hands all over the place. They spend virtually their entire defensive time in the half-court in a zone that applies pressure on the perimeter. That's because they have a shot-blocking machine in Gorgui Dieng.

The Louisville guards are very quick, with Russ Smith an excellent scorer. On the wing is Kyle Kuric, a great shooter. UC must cover him on the secondary break, as he drifts to open areas, particularly the corner, when the guards penetrate in transistion.

That said, Providence destroyed them in the Dunk. That was awhile ago, but the Cards are beatable. We need 13,176 wearing black on Thursday night. Let's hope the UofL contingent that shows up (and there will be many), have nothing to cheer about. Over 60 buses of their fans made the trip to Chicago for their game with DePaul. They were louder than the Blue Demon fans.
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Old 02-19-2012, 12:07 AM   #5
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RPI up to 84. Need this one badly. Very, very, difficult to get to 11-7 with a loss here. We've played UL tough over the past years. I see a W.
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Old 02-19-2012, 11:27 AM   #6
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Default Huge - but aren't they all?

Big win here...if the Cats can beat Loserville, that's a major boost.

I think they can handle S. Fl., no matter where the game is played - SF are poseurs...their BE record looks good only because of their flukey schedule. They play 6 games against teams that are down this year in the BE (Pitt, Villanova & Providence). To SF's credit, so far they have taken care of business against the bottom tier of the conference. They have faced 3 of the top 7 (other than themselves) teams in the conference, losing to all of them - (ND by 11, Marquette by 20, & Gtown by 30). Their last 4 games are Syracuse, Cincy, Louisville & WV - let's see what they look like after that run.

Marquette here? I don't know - maybe closer, but could easily be a loss - they're good.
Villanova? Beat them once, should be able to do it again with everthing on the line for us, nothing for them.

I would be content with a 3-1 finish and an overall record of 22-9, 12-6 BE

The Louisville game keys everything else. The rest are obviously important, but they can't afford to drop 2.
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Old 02-19-2012, 11:52 AM   #7
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I just looked at Pomeroy and Sagarin and both have us around 40 rank. Does the selection committee only use RPI?
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Old 02-19-2012, 11:59 AM   #8
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I think in order to beat louisville the guards are going to have to make a more concentrated effort to get the ball inside. they are somewhat thin along the front line, and this is an area we can clearly exploit. hear's to hoping the guards quit dribbling like the globetrotters and swing the ball.
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Old 02-19-2012, 12:55 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bcat1997 View Post
I just looked at Pomeroy and Sagarin and both have us around 40 rank. Does the selection committee only use RPI?
A few years ago, I saw a discussion of the committee's methods, involving the committee head at the time (whose name escapes me). The committee uses the RPI as a starting point of discussions. After that, it is irrelevant. They have access to a vast array of other information, including injury reports, how teams have done in the latter portion of the season, good/bad losses, road/neutral results, etc.

They do not say they use any other ranking systems, such as Sagarin. The NCAA really favors politically correct measurement sources. Just as the BCS isn't interested in score differentials, neither is the NCAA committee.

The RPI is strength-of-schedule heavy. Fifty per cent of the score is the record of a team's opponents, another 25% are the records of the opponents' opponents, while the remaining 25% are the team's own winning percentage. Home and road factors are then applied. It has been said (although I don't know whether these are accurate) that home wins count for 0.4, while road wins count for 1.6.

Beyond that, the committee tries to weigh all of the other information that they have at their disposal. They do team-versus-team comparisons and discuss the merits of each.

Before the season, each committee member is assigned primary and secondary conferences, with the purpose of assessing each team. They watch games and review information throughout the season. They bring their opinions to the discussions. Each member also recuses himself/herself from discussions involving his/her own school (if he/she is the AD) or conference (if he/she is the conference commissioner). So, for instance, if XU's name comes up, Mike Bobinski is to leave the room.

Last edited by swilsonsp4 : 02-19-2012 at 01:43 PM. Reason: proofreading
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Old 02-19-2012, 03:38 PM   #10
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Beat Louisville and Marquette at home and UC is a lock for the tourney. Louisville is first.
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Old 02-19-2012, 05:33 PM   #11
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Simply said, but very true. They are an NIT team right now. Had they beaten Marshall and Prespaterian (spelling) and were 21-7 there would be much more margin for error.

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Beat Louisville and Marquette at home and UC is a lock for the tourney. Louisville is first.
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Old 02-19-2012, 09:54 PM   #12
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Simply said, but very true. They are an NIT team right now. Had they beaten Marshall and Prespaterian (spelling) and were 21-7 there would be much more margin for error.
Um, no!............................25
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Old 02-19-2012, 10:04 PM   #13
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Gonna be hard to duplicate last year's win over Louisville-- just tough to do the same thing twice in a row to a coach like Pitino

And as for USF, that game down there next Sunday gonna be pretty close to impossible to win- they play great D, they have tons of size, and a real point guard finally.

These last four are all gonna be VERY VERY tough - gotta get a split to have any chance at the Dance

Yancy-- we needja
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Old 02-19-2012, 10:42 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swilsonsp4 View Post
I won't make a prediction just yet tonight, just a few comments about the Cards. They're in your face for 40 minutes, pressing full court, hands all over the place. They spend virtually their entire defensive time in the half-court in a zone that applies pressure on the perimeter. That's because they have a shot-blocking machine in Gorgui Dieng.

The Louisville guards are very quick, with Russ Smith an excellent scorer. On the wing is Kyle Kuric, a great shooter. UC must cover him on the secondary break, as he drifts to open areas, particularly the corner, when the guards penetrate in transistion.

That said, Providence destroyed them in the Dunk. That was awhile ago, but the Cards are beatable. We need 13,176 wearing black on Thursday night. Let's hope the UofL contingent that shows up (and there will be many), have nothing to cheer about. Over 60 buses of their fans made the trip to Chicago for their game with DePaul. They were louder than the Blue Demon fans.

We saw how UC handled the press against Marquette. They better practice bring it up under full court pressure so they dont have a million TOs like the Marquette game
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Old 02-19-2012, 11:49 PM   #15
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We saw how UC handled the press against Marquette. They better practice bring it up under full court pressure so they dont have a million TOs like the Marquette game
Not sure UL has the depth to play a full court press for any significant number of minutes..
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Old 02-19-2012, 11:49 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Corporateballa View Post
Simply said, but very true. They are an NIT team right now. Had they beaten Marshall and Prespaterian (spelling) and were 21-7 there would be much more margin for error.
Wrong.....
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Old 02-20-2012, 07:10 AM   #17
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My today's prediction is...

UC 77
UL 74

It could change tomorrow (win or lose).
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Old 02-20-2012, 07:28 AM   #18
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Bearcats win in a squeaker!

UC - 57
Loserville - 54 (missed half court shot at buzzer to end both halves).
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Old 02-20-2012, 09:17 AM   #19
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UC 76
UL 65

Kilpatrick goes off for 30.
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Old 02-20-2012, 09:49 AM   #20
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Wrong.....
The truth is they are squarely on the bubble. Can go either way, still.
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